Like a coin, there are two sides to any war. Which side you choose depends upon your morality. For one party involved, it can be a ‘war of independence’ while for the other it can be a ‘war of catastrophe’.
Before understanding the present it's important to know about our past, so let's start from the beginning. Israel, the only Jewish nation in the world, and Palestine have been in a constant conflict over land, political control, and resources ever since 1920 when the British Empire took over the control of Israel, Palestine, And Jordan from Ottomans in World War I. In 1922, the League of Nations approved a British declaration promising Jews a national home in Palestine but this promise was only initiated almost 2 decades later. In 1939 during World War 2 almost more than 6 million Jews died in Holocaust and many more were forced to migrate from their homes. In 1947, the UN decided to divide Israel into the Jewish state of Israel and the Arab start of Palestine. Israel agreed but Arabs felt that this majorly favoured Jewish populations and thus almost immediately violence broke out. Arab League, a group of neighboring arab countries like Yemen, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia rejoiced together and attacked.
Israel fought back and took a major portion of arab land. Later, Egypt took control of the Gaza Strip and Jordan took over the West Bank thus the originally planned distribution of land for Palestine was scrapped. This was a victorious moment for Jews but on the other hand, 720000 Arabs were forced to evacuate their homes and become refugees in Gaza and the West Bank. This tension continued for the next 60 years!
In 1964, the Palestine Liberation Group (PLO) was formed. In 1967, a war between Israel and Palestine was fought which lasted for about 6 days resulting in Israel winning a significant amount of territory.
1987 saw the first Intifada where hundreds were killed because of a disturbance caused by Israeli defense that led to the killing of 4 Palestinian refugees.
After this PLO AND ISRAEL signed a timetable for peace, the Oslo Accords, which later proved to be unsuccessful and an obstacle to peace as it had major concerns like the status of Jerusalem, rights of refugees, increased settlement of Jews in Palestinian lands, etc, were overlooked.
In 2005, the second intifada happened when the Al Aqsa mosque of Jerusalem was visited by its then PM, Ariel Sharon. Some consider this act insensitive.
In 2006 when a militant Sunni Islamist group, called Hamas which was accused of being a terrorist ground because of its practices like suicide bombing, etc, won Palestinian legislative elections, it caused further distubence.
Recently, in 2017, Hamas proposed the formation of a Palestinian state using the 1967 border, but it was rejected as it didn’t formally recognize Israel as a state.
The disturbance resurfaced on October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led Palestinian militant groups targeted southern Israel with a barrage of rockets. at the same time, around 3,000 militants breached the Gaza–Israel barrier and attacked neighboring Israeli communities and military bases, resulting in the death of hundreds. After clearing Hamas militants, the Israeli military retaliated by conducting an extensive aerial bombardment campaign on Hamas targets, followed by a large-scale ground invasion of Gaza. Nearly all of Gaza's 2.3 million population and around 500,000 Israelis have been internally displaced. Hamas stated that its attack was in response to the continued Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, and the blockade of the Gaza Strip. Throughout the war, there have been widespread global protests that primarily call for a ceasefire. The war continues as the US and its diplomats side with Israel, a decision that has been condemned by various human rights groups.
Impacts of the geopolitical crisis caused by ongoing Israel-Gaza complicates on:
- Economy
Our world is more interconnected than ever so when a conflict or disturbance happens in place at a large scale then its ripples and geopolitical tension are experienced by not only its neighboring countries but the whole world. The escalation of the Israel -Gaza war has the potential to send shock waves to the global financial economy far beyond the Middle East In 1973 during the oil crisis during the Yam Kapor in Israel Egypt and Syria arab states stopped supplying crude oil. The world is in a dilemma if the world will once again face the scarcity of oil during this ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. Even though the prices are still normalized the extension of the current scenario can damage the fundamentals of the trade.
- Consumerism
During these times of uncertainty, gold prices have taken a sharp increase as investors take refugees in safe-haven assets. Stock value saw a dip in various sectors including fast food chains like McDonald's, Dunkin, and even European airlines like International Airlines Group and Lufthansa.
- Political Realignment
People all around the world are being divided based on being pro-Israel or pro-Palestinian. semitism, including death threats to Jewish groups and organizations in the United States, is on the rise in disgusting ways.
- Depletion of resources
Israeli forces have encircled Gaza City, to control and squeeze the Hamas thus resulting in containing of Hundreds of thousands of civilians in the city. The death rate in the city is increasing rapidly each day and the resources are desperately low on commodities like water, fuel, and supplies as Israel has rejected humanitarian pauses and has limited the amount of aid that can enter.
- Displacement of Population
Displacement of millions of Palestinians has put fellow Arab countries like Egypt and Jordan in a dilemma as even though they have previously absorbed thousands of civilians but have resisted accepting anyone during the current war. They fear that Gazans, many of whom were already displaced from elsewhere in Israel, will not be allowed to return once they leave.
Psychological warfare exposure to ongoing wars will alter the way both Israelis and Palestinians think, feel, and act. PTSD and other serious health issues can be experienced by the people who are going through this scenario nearby. People coming from low-income family backgrounds can experience higher levels of emotional and behavioral disorders and neuroticism.
- Destruction of infrastructure
The Palestinian Public Works and Housing Department said Israeli attacks had destroyed more than 41,000 housing units and damaged more than 222,000 housing units. In all, it said at least 45% of Gaza's housing units had reportedly been damaged or destroyed. According to Gaza's Ministry of Health, as of Nov. 16, only nine of the enclave's 35 hospitals in Gaza were partially functioning. The rest have shut down formal medical services.
- Water and sanitation
The U.N. Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA) said on Nov. 16 that due to an absence of fuel, 70% of the people in southern Gaza had no access to clean water.
- Humanitarian Aid
On average 500 trucks of food and goods entered Gaza each day before the conflict. All imports were halted after Oct. 7 and only resumed on Oct. 21. Between then and Nov. 14 a total of 1,139 trucks carrying humanitarian aid had crossed into Gaza.
- Telecoms
On Nov. 16, Gaza's telecommunications services shut down after fuel used to run generators ran out.
Implications of the Israel-Gaza War on India:
The economic impact of global oil supply has important implications for India which is a net importer of crude oil. Even though the conditions are stable at the moment a risk of supply disruption in crude oil prices can happen if escalation in the war continues, resulting in a spike in crude oil prices. India may experience higher import bills, wider current account deficit, and inflationary pressures if international crude oil prices remain elevated for a longer period over the ongoing global geopolitical tensions.
The roadmap for the future of the Israel-Gaza conflict:
At this point, the leaders of the world must come together and find a middle ground for the betterment of the millions of people who are suffering the most during these times and are uncertain of their future. As Israel continues its war on Gaza, which is causing loss of life and displacement at a scale that has led to it being labeled a “genocide” by various experts, the Palestinian liberation struggle is at a critical juncture.
Given are the steps that I believe can ripen the chances of peace between both the communities involved:
- Hamas should publicly acknowledge the Peace Accords signed between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the foundation for a peace process, and agree to the scheduling of elections for the entire Palestinian territory.
- Israel should consider Hamas as a reformed political party and should be open to future negotiations.
- The PLO should be reactivated and reformed in a way that would ensure the representation of all Palestinian parties and components within its structures.
- The reconstruction of Gaza should start immediately under international and Arab supervision and funds should be collected internationally.
- Israel should be made to set up a compensation fund for the families – both Israeli and Palestinian – victims.
- The restrictions on Gaza should be lifted, fully and unconditionally, with its border crossings, airports, and ports reopened and its residents given full freedom of movement.
Even though the future is uncertain but its been proven again and again in the past that once we come together as a society and move forward for the right cause, nothing is impossible.