Introduction

The 28th edition of the Conference of Parties (COP28) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) took place recently at Dubai from 30 November 2023 to December 13. 2023. It was attended by 196 countries of the world. As the President of COP28, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber played the role of Persuader-in-Chief. The Conference concluded with the adoption of “a very carefully calibrated decision text titled the ‘UAE Consensus’. Sultan AL Jaber described the outcome as “a balanced plan, that tackles emissions, bridges the gap on adaptation, reimagines global finance, and delivers on loss and damage “ and one “built on common ground/” The Indian representative, Bhupender Yadav, the Union Environment Minister, welcomed the agreement and congratulated the UAE's COP Presidency “for its fairness and free exchange of thought”.(Ibid. )

The Expectations and the Outcomes from the Conference

1. Global Stocktake

The main agenda of COP28 was to carry out a Global Stocktake (GST), an assessment of what the world has achieved so far in its fight against climate change, and what more is needed to be done in this regard. COP28 was being seen as the last opportunity to ensure that the world had some hope of keeping the warming threshold within 1.5 degree Celsius. The GST is mandated by the Paris Agreement to be an exercise conducted periodically, first in 2023 and every five years thereafter. It is pertinent to note here that the year 2023 is already the hottest year ever. That is why COP28 was expected to use the GST to initiate more ambitious climate actions between now and 2030. The GST does this in eight ways, calling on parties to each in a “nationally determined manner/”

• One, tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.
• Two, accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power.
• Three, accelerating efforts towards net zero emission energy systems, utilizing zero and low carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century.
• Four, transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.
• Five, accelerating zero-and low-emission technologies, including renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production.
• Six, accelerating and substantially reducing non-CO2 emissions, including in particular methane emissions by 2030.
• Seven, accelerating the reductions of emissions from road transport on a range of pathways, including through development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero and low-emission vehicles.
• And eight, phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty. This is the key section in the GST.

However, COP28 was disappointed on this front. There was little in the final agreement to accelerate short time action to tackle climate change.

The Outcomes

Final outcomes of COP28 may be enumerated as under:

Fossil fuel Phase-Out

The issue of fossil fuel phase-out was widely debated and hotly contested amongst the participating nations. The role of fossil fuels in global warming had never been acknowledged even. But this time, after much deliberation, the final agreement called upon countries to contribute towards “transitioning away” from fossil fuels, “so as to achieve net zero by 2050.” There were no schedules or targets. Moreover, the term “fossil fuel phase-out” had not been used in the final document. Therefore, the production and consumption of fossil fuels are unlikely to be curbed in the near future, but it may be done in the 2050 time frame.

1. Tripling of Renewable Energy

The COP28 final agreement calls upon countries to work in the direction of tripling global installed capacity of renewable energy, and doubling of annual improvements in energy efficiency. This was an expected outcome of the COP28 meet, and the only one contributing to additional emission reductions between now and 2030. The cumulative effect of these two measures have the potential to avoid emissions of about 7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent between now and 2030. This is more than the net result of all the other climate actions being currently taken. Tripling is a global target and the countries have not been mandated to individually triple their current capacity. Thus, it is not clear how this tripling of targets globally would be ensured.

2. Phase-down of Coal

Coal, essentially being a fossil fuel, was mentioned separately in the agreement. In the Glasgow conference of 2021, Coal was already singled out for phase-down. There was a move to the effect that no new coal-fired power plants could be opened without an in-built carbon capture and storage facility. However, the move was strongly resisted by India, China, South Africa, and other countries. Consequently, it was dropped, and finally, the Glasgow language was retained. In the agreement, no mention has been made as to how this phase-down is to be measured, or from what baseline.

3. Cuts in Methane Emission

The agreement speaks about “accelerating, and substantially reducing non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030”. Methane is the most widespread greenhouse gas after CO2 which accounts for nearly 25% of all emissions. At the same time, it is also about 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in causing global warming. Methane emission reductions can thus ensure substantial benefits. But India, along with several other countries, are extremely opposed to any mandate to cut emissions. This is mainly because one of the major sources of methane happens to be agriculture and livestock. Moreover, there is no mention in the agreement about the targets for methane emissions cuts for the year 2030.

4. Loss and Damage Fund

Climate Change is, primarily, linked to excess greenhouse gas emissions from developed countries. But its adverse impact is largely suffered by the developing countries, particularly the small and island countries. Most of these countries are not equipped with adequate resources to recover from these disasters. The international climate change architecture makes it obligatory for the developed countries to provide financial and technological resources to the developing countries to help them deal with the impacts of climate change. Such impact of climate change includes climate-related emergencies, sea level rise, displacement, relocation, migration, insufficient climate information and data, and the need for climate-resilient reconstruction and recovery.

This was the most significant outcome of the COP28 agreement, especially for the poor and vulnerable countries. A decision to establish a Loss and Damage Fund had been taken in the year 2022 at COP27 at Sharm el-Shaikh, Egypt, but it could not make enough headway. On the opening day of COP28, this fund was operationalized, and several countries made funding commitments worth US$800 million. This money will be needed to help countries trying to make a recovery from climate-induced disasters. The initial corpus of the fund will be over $400 million, well short of the $400 billion estimates suggest will be needed every year.

5. Global Goal on Adaptation

For the developing countries, this was another important step. Adaptation has not received proper attention, mainly because it is considered to be a local endeavour with local benefits. Keeping in view the developing countries’ argument for the need of a global framework for adaptation, the Glasgow conference decided to set up a two-year work programme to define the contours of this framework. The said work programme culminated in the identification of some common adaptation goals, such as reduction in climate-induced water scarcity, attaining climate-resilience in food and agricultural production, and resilience against climate-induced health impacts.

Conclusion

The Conference of Parties (COP28), recently held at Dubai, has definitely taken a step further in the direction of reducing the adverse effects of climate change. Though the experts’ response has been lukewarm regarding the success of this conference yet looking into the not-so-committal response of the developed countries, this progress is worth celebrating. These countries are yet not ready to fulfill the promise of reducing the greenhouse gas emissions within the stipulated time frame. On the other hand, they are not ready to share their money to the developing countries for dealing with the vagaries of nature caused by the adverse impact of climate change. The current framework adopted by COP28 lacks financial provisions. Lot of effort needs to be done in this regard by the participating countries. Besides that, the Global Stocktake process must be kickstarted in earnest, and the impediments in the way should be dealt with in a clear and firm manner. In this regard, the impasse on fossil fuels must be resolved as soon as possible. But by any account, the show must go on in order to save humanity from total extinction. 

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