Introduction

After more than four years since the Chinese incursions in Eastern Ladakh triggering a military standoff along the Line of Actual Control in 2020, diplomatic efforts between the two countries have paid off in the form of an agreement on patrolling arrangements along the LAC in the India-China border areas, leading to disengagement and a resolution of the issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020. This was stated on October 21, 2024, in a media briefing by the foreign secretary, Mr. Vikram Misri in New Delhi. Two days later, the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi and the Chinese President, Xi Jinping held their first structural and formal meetings in the last five years on the margins of the Brics Summit in the Russian city of Kazan, and welcomed the consensus reached on the issues coming forth in the aftermath of 2020 border standoff in eastern Ladakh area.

Though no details of the agreement have been made public yet by the government of India in this regard, the outcomes of this agreement may be summarized as such on the basis of media reports:

1. Both sides have agreed to restore patrolling rights to each other in the Depsang Plains and Demchok region. These are the areas where the problems are termed as ‘legacy issues’, predating the 2020 Chinese incursions. This implies that the Indian troops can patrol up to patrolling point (PP) 10 to 13 in the Depsang Plains, and in Charding nullah of Demchok.
2. The above agreement will lead to disengagement, de-escalation and de-militarisation in areas where 50,000 to 60,000 troops are stationed on each side. By now, this process has begun and is in the final stage of completion.
3. In Demchok and Depsang, patrolling and grazing activities will resume as it was pre-May 2020.
4. The previous disengagement at friction points such as Galwan Valley, the north and south banks of Pangong Tso, Gogra-Hot Springs area have not been reopened for negotiations.
5.  The sequence of three D's will be disengagement first, discussions on de-escalation next, and de-induction last which will take place at the appropriate time.

These steps have “set the process in motion” for bringing relations back to a normal path, and if necessary for both sides to continue on this path.

The Next Step:

1. Whereas China continues to emphasize the urgency of normalising the economic and political relationship, India's focus is on stabilising the border first.1 Thus, India has maintained, rightly so, that until the border standoff is resolved, there cannot be business as usual with China.
2. Special Representatives on the India-China boundary question will meet at an early date to explore a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable solution to the boundary question.2

Viewing the past history of Indo-China relations, there is a fair bit of caution in the eyes of defence experts and military strategists in India. Though this border pact has started a process of trust-building in motion, it will be required from both the countries to keep their promised words. If it takes place, the 3-D process of disengagement, de-escalation and de-induction can be completed in a couple of years, and hopefully, the situation in both the countries regarding the borders will be normalized.

Here, it would be pertinent to note what India's Chief of Army Staff, General Upendra Dwivedi said on Oct 22 in regard to the need if ‘trust-building’ while speaking on the sidelines of the Colonel Pyara Lal Memorial Lecture organized by the United Service Institution of India in New Delhi, he called for restoring trust between the Indian Army and the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) along the contested Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. He further elaborated on the subject by adding: “How will the trust get restored? It will get restored once we are able to see each other and convince each other that we are not creeping into the buffer zones that are there…that have been created. Both must assure each other. Patrolling gives you that kind of advantage.”3

The Future Irritants

1. There is also the issue of “buffer zones” that were created at Pangong Lake, Galwan Valley, Gogra, and Hot Springs amid the standoff. India's stated aim of returning to the status quo as of allowed to continue.
2. There was also an understanding, as per the official sources, over Yangtse in Arunachal Pradesh “that Chinese patrols will be allowed like before and their movement will not be blocked". Yangtse in Tawang comes under disputed areas between the two countries and this area has seen consistent transgressions since 2011. On December 9, 2022, Indian soldiers clashed with their Chinese counterparts resulting in injuries. After June 15, 2020, 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a clash with the Chinese army at Galwan. The incident led to a physical scuffle in which the Indian army prevented the Chinese army from transgressing into Indian territory. According to the defence sources then, in several areas along the LAC in the Tawang sector, both sides patrol the area up to their claim lines, a trend since 2006. This matter needs to be resolved in future talks between the two countries.
3. The issue of grazing grounds has been a major friction point between the two countries. Though the latest agreement addresses the problem in the Demchok area, the issue has to be resolved in the whole area along the Line of Actual Control.

Admittedly, there is a long way to go to resolve all the issues pertaining to the India-China boundary dispute. In this context, the observations of Mr. Ashok K. Kantha, a former Ambassador to China, are worth quoting here: “Yet, India will have to continue to show strategic patience, learn to live with a sensitive border with China, step up investment in border infrastructure, reinforce conventional and strategic deterrence, continue with the posture of external balancing without any exaggerated expectations, and reduce its dependencies on China through a difficult process of economic de-risking, even while exploring openings for cooperation. China will remain India's principal strategic challenge, and a hasty return to business as usual will be ill-advised".4

Conclusion

China, at present, is passing through a taxing and difficult phase, both in geopolitical and economic sense. That is why she is more inclined to show tactical flexibility in its dealings with the US, UK and European Union countries including India. The present border agreement is a clear indicator of this fact. However, any attempt to ease the tension at the India-China border is worth appreciating. Though caution should be the watchword, given the past experiences with our unreliable neighbouring country. In this context, it is important that the actual terms of agreement be brought forth by the Government of India in public domain. The people of this country deserve this, in the least. In this multilateral world of ours, the economic interests of the country need to be taken care of. Therefore, India has to tread with caution in dealing with boundary disputes with China.

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References:

1. Editorial, The Indian Express, Hope And Realism, Oct 25, 2024.
2. Shubhajit Roy, The India-China agreement, The Indian Express, Oct 25, 2024.
3. Rahul Singh, Hindustan Times, Army chief says trust key to disengagement, Oct 23, 2024.
4. Ashok K Kantha, Living with China, with tempered expectations, Hindustan Times, Oct 25, 2024.