Introduction

Albert Einstein, the renowned scientist and intellectual of modern times, has once said, “It is my conviction that killing under the cloak of war is nothing but an act of murder.” No better words can describe the tragedy of war where the soldiers, and to some extent the civilians, are brutally murdered by the lethal bullets, bombs, landmines and other weapons that don't recognize the person killed. The Russia-Ukraine war entered its third year on February 24 this year. On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine which in due course of time, turned into the biggest war in Europe since World War II. The fighting has displaced millions of Ukrainians. It has altered the geopolitical landscape of Europe. At the same time, the war has hit economies around the world by disrupting supply chains, adding to inflation, and triggering great economic uncertainty. According to the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in action in the two years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion. While the Russian claim is higher. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights places civilian deaths at about 10,500 while US officials put the total number of dead and wounded at over 5,00,000. At the beginning of February 2022, then Chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley reportedly told leaders of the Congress that in the event of a full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine could collapse in 72 hours. However, it is now two years since the invasion began. (Nandan Unnikrishnan, Russia–Ukraine war, two years on, The Indian Express, Feb 24, 2024.) Eight months after Ukraine began its counteroffensive, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander of Ukrainian forces admitted that it is evident that the campaign failed. The General was fired by the President earlier this month.

The Present Scenario

The momentum in the war today rests with Russia. The Ukrainian forces are facing an acute shortage of equipment and manpower. Learning from the past experiences, Russia, on the other hand, has been able to successfully readjust and readapt their tactics to the new kind of war raging in the warzone. Most importantly, Russia has been able to protect its economy from Western sanctions. ‘Today, the Russian economy is actually booming. This is something the West did not expect.’ Ukrainian forces lost many of their West-supplied weapons in the counteroffensive and are waiting for fresh supplies, but aid from the US is stuck in Congress amid Opposition by Republicans. The Russian forces are on the offensive. In December 2023, Russia claimed its first victory since the fall of Bakhmut when it captured Maryinka in Donetsk. Earlier this month, the Russian army forced Ukraine to abandon Avdiivka, a strategically important town in Donetsk, after a gruelling fight that lasted for months in which Ukrainian forces suffered a huge loss. The Russian forces are now advancing westward in Donetsk and exerting pressure on Ukrainian forces in Krynki, Kherson, in the south.

A New Kind of War

In this war, the world has not witnessed any kind of blitzkrieg containing a shock-and-awe element. There was not sending a lot of airplanes, and missiles, taking out the enemy's air defences, and then marching triumphantly and taking over the country. This has been the case in Iraq, Afghanistan and other places. On the contrary, in Ukraine, the Russian army met with a fairly resolute defence. But on realization that the war was going to be a prolonged one, the Russian army changed their tactics. One such example pertains to the use of drones. In the initial phase, the Ukrainian forces used the drones with significant successes. Taking a clue from the Ukrainians, the Russian forces not only adopted the use of drones themselves, but they also found ways to defend against the drones. So, occasionally a drone will go deep inside Russian territory, but they are unable to inflict that kind of damage as they did in the early phase of the war.

The Global Response

The Western countries, especially the NATO countries, supplied arms and ammunition to Ukraine from time to time. The United States, Germany, France, and other European Union countries lent moral support to Ukraine. They also supplied medicines and other necessary provisions to the war-ravaged country of Ukraine. They brought resolutions in the UN Security Council, but the Russian veto stalled their further progress. In the General Assembly also, many such resolutions were brought which were passed by a majority of countries barring a few including India. The West had taken a two-fold approach towards Ukraine. First, to provide economic and military assistance to Ukraine to keep the fight against Russia going on. Secondly, to weaken Russia's economy and war machine through sanctions. Keeping in view the ensuing Presidential elections in the U.S., the uncertainty looms over the first policy approach. The second pillar, sanctions, is still continuing.

• Sanctions

Sanctions have hurt Russia badly. Western officials believe that sanctions have deprived Russia of over $430 billion in revenue it would otherwise have gained since the war began. However, Russia has worked out several ways to offset the loss and to keep the economy going. When Europe cut energy sales, Russia offered discounted crude oil to big growing economies such as China, India and Brazil. For this purpose, Russia amassed a ghost fleet of ships to keep sending oil to its new market without relying on Western shipping companies and insurers. It set up shell companies and private corporations operating in its neighbourhood (say Armenia or Turkey) to import dual-use technologies which were re-exported to Russia to be used in defence production. China ramped up its financial and trade ties with Russia, including the export of dual-use technologies. Further, Russia moved away from the dollar to other currencies, mainly the Chinese Yuan, for trade, and boosted defence and public spending at home. It's defence budget was enhanced by nearly 70% this year. Moreover, it strengthened ties with Iran and North Korea, which were undergoing similar suffering under the U.S. sanctions, and imported weapons from them, ranging from drones to cruise missiles and ammunition. Factually, two years after the war started, despite sanctions, both Russia's energy industry and its military-industrial complex remain vibrant. Russia was able to earn $15.6 billion from its oil exports alone in January, up from $11.8 billion in the summer of 2023, according to the International Energy Agency. As per the Russian defence ministry's claims, it manufactured 1,530 tanks and 2,518 armoured vehicles in 2023. On 23rd February this year, U.S., and European Union imposed 500 new sanctions on Russia on the eve of the second anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine and in retaliation for the death of noted Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny last week in an Arctic penal colony. They target Russian businessmen, including the head of Russia's second-largest bank, and their middlemen.

• India's Stand

India‘s stand throughout the Russia-Ukraine war has been primarily neutral. India deserves accolades for taking a very balanced and positive position at the start of the war, and for refusing to join the chorus of condemnation of Russia. In the aftermath when the war affected global supply chains and commodity prices, in some areas India benefited. First, India had sudden access to cheap Russian oil. Russia sold to India in large quantities and at a great discount. So, it was able to withstand any shock of an oil price rise. Oil is a very important item for India which imports 90 percent of its domestic consumption. Secondly, India has also managed to maintain fairly good links on both sides. When the war started, India was able to get Indian students out of Ukraine safely. Recently, there have been visits by Ukrainian ministers to India. Historically, India has had strong links with Russia and that is likely to continue.

Conclusion

The second anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war reminds humanity that how long the duration of war may be, it cannot offer permanent and amicable solutions to the problems. The ravages of war leave dastardly imprints on the hearts of the innocent citizens. During the course of the ongoing war in Ukraine, many civilians including the women and children have suffered badly. Nobody knows how many people are going to be adversely affected in the future if the war continues. This is high time the world community comes together and sought an amicable solution to the issues involved between the two countries. Humanity deserves a better fate. 

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