Hello readers,

I want to start with a rather unconventional question: Can the sun's heat make India poor?

What nonsense?

Well, at first glance, it may seem like nonsense, but the reality is that heat, in the form of extreme temperatures and scorching weather, is a pressing issue that affects millions of lives in India and has significant economic consequences.

India has made remarkable strides and is now the world's 5th largest economy. However, there's a problem that often goes unnoticed, a problem that silently erodes our GDP year after year – and that problem is HEAT. It's not a matter to be taken lightly; it's the truth, and it's affecting the lives of a staggering 220 million Indians.

In today’s article, we will come to know that, due to heat, how our economy gets impacted and what we can do to fight this. But if we just discuss problems, how will it be sufficient? It’s important to discuss solutions as well.

THE HOTTEST MONTH

In the month of January, there was a cold wave in the whole country and in February, there was a heatwave. The interesting part is that this February was the hottest one in the past 100 years. And you know the scary part, summer didn’t even start yet. If in February itself the temperature reaches 36 to 39 degrees, then what will happen in the future? We think, it's hot but nothing to worry about because we have AC, we will start using it. But, the point is not that simple.

First let’s understand, what is a heatwave. A heatwave is declared when the temperature crosses a particular limit. As per the Indian meteorological department, the heatwave is declared when the temperature

• In the plain area is 5 degrees more than the main temperature or if the temperature crosses 40 degrees.
• In hilly areas, if it is 5 degrees more than the main temperature or if the temperature crosses 35 degrees.
• In coastal areas, if it is 5 degrees more than the main temperature or if the temperature crosses 37 degrees.

For example, in Mumbai, in the month of February, the average temperature is around 31 degrees. But this year, in the month of February, the temperature in Mumbai had reached 36 degrees. Which meant, for a few days a situation like a heatwave had arrived. Heatwave is not a season like summer, monsoon, or winter. It is observed on a day-to-day basis. If you remember last year too, the situation was similar. In April and May, a heatwave was declared near Delhi.

Why do these heatwaves occur? Heatwaves are formed when in the atmosphere of an area, a high-pressure situation is created. Since high pressure is created in the upper area, winds are trapped towards the ground and the heat reflected by the ground gets trapped in this area. This heat is unable to escape from that area. In this high-pressure area outside wind is unable to enter. And the wind inside is unable to leave. Like a closed room, heat gets trapped at one place only. World Bank has predicted that due to climate change, heatwaves will become more serious. The chances of heatwaves in India have increased by 100 times. And we as a country to deal with this problem are not ready at all. In 2022, record heatwaves happened in India. 16 states recorded 280 heatwave days. This means the whole country had such high temperatures for 280 days that its direct impact was happening on our health. A Mckinsey report states that 22 crore Indians can fall victim to heatwaves. Due to such heatwaves and rising temperatures, productivity is reduced. We are privileged people who spend most of the time in the office or indoors. So we face heat only during travelling. But what about those people who work in these high temperatures? You will be surprised, but even today, India’s 75% population which means, 3 out of 4 people do labour-related work. 

In Agriculture, Construction or in some unorganised sector, 75% of Indians are dependent. This 75% contributes about 1/3 rd of our GDP. McKinsey states that, due to heatwaves productivity of everyone goes down by 5 to 10%. Which means, that labourers get tired soon and work lesser than their capacity. And this small thing has a large-scale impact on our economy. How much? Up to 4.5% of our GDP. That is, 126 billion dollars every year. To put things in perspective, in our country, in a year, only 3% of our budget gets allocated towards education. So if we are able to save this loss happening due to heatwaves, and are able to forward this money towards education, then every year our education budget can be doubled from today. Just think, due to this in our country, how much development can take place? Our youth can benefit so much, This economic loss can be reduced and used for better things. Do you think our political leaders don’t know about this? Of course, they know it. But if the environment becomes our priority, then changes will happen.

CONNECTION BETWEEN HEATWAVES AND ECONOMY

When we talk about heatwaves, our perspectives are restricted to an individual level and our health. But for a country, literally, its citizen’s health is wealth. Germany, Switzerland, Norway- What’s common in them? These countries are cold countries, where summers are less and these countries are one of the richest countries. On the other hand, African countries are among the poorest countries. And these are hot countries where the summers are more and the winters are equal to none. Most of the rich countries are cold countries, with the exception of Middle Eastern countries. Which means, heat and wealth have a connection. In our country, 70 crore people do a labour-intensive, physical job. Which means, their work is linked to their physical capabilities. This link is crucial for the country’s economy. Let’s see, in different sectors, how much loss happens due to heatwaves?

1. Agriculture

In agriculture, all the work happens outdoors only. Wheat starts getting harvested in April-May. In 2022, due to heatwaves, the output of wheat which was supposed to be 110 million tonnes, but it was just 103 million tonnes. Which led to a sharp rise in the prices and the amount of heat, India wanted to export, but it wasn’t able to do it. Due to heatwaves, crop loss and crop damage happen which has a direct impact on inflation. Because when crop loss happens, prices also rise. International Labour Organisation states that by 2030, due to heat India’s agriculture sector will have a 9% productivity loss. Which means, people won’t be able to work even if they want to because of the increasing heat.

2. Pharmaceuticals

India wants to become the world’s pharmacy. And in some sense, we are already there. Because for the whole world, we manufacture generic drugs. But every year we lose 20% of medical equipment because they are temperature sensitive. 25% of vaccines are wasted due to a lack of cold chains. The temperatures are rising in the country. If the temperatures are not maintained in transport, then the product is wasted. The economic impact of these medical losses is 313 million dollars. That is huge.

3. Construction

Construction sector is one of India’s top employers. But in this sector, most of the employees have to work outdoors in the heat. If people aren’t able to work due to heat, then projects can be delayed and losses can increase. International Labour Organisation’s report states that, by 2030 there can be 9% productivity loss in construction too.

4. Electricity

Heatwaves have a deep impact in one more sector, and that is the electricity sector. Because, as the heat rises, the demand of power also rises. Not only just power but also demand for cooling also increases. By 2050, upto 50% of electricity demands will only be for cooling. And because our power is generated majority from coal, to generate more power we will release more green house gases. Due to which, global warming will increase and heatwaves too.

5. Inflation

Heatwaves also have an impact on your wallet. How? Because inflation rises due to heat. Now, what is Inflation? Inflation means a rise in prices. Prices of our daily needs become costly. For example, wheat has become an important part of our diet. Our National Sample Survey states that, in India, 8 out of 10 people consume wheat or wheat-related products. And products like bread, biscuits, and pasta are also made from it. CPI which is Consumer Price Index, measures inflation. Punjab is a leading wheat-producing state. Last year, the temperature in Punjab was 4-5 degrees more than the average which reduced the output by 5 million metric tonnes. LESS OUTPUT MEANS HIGHER PRICES. And it impacted your wallet. And this is not just about one cereal. Vegetables, pulses, and fruits, all of them are impacted due to heat. This heat is burning a hole in your pocket.

CHAPTER 3: SO WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT?

Heatwaves are about to become a reality. Actually already made. Keep the studies aside, just have a look outside and witness the reality. India needs to adapt. As a country, we don’t have to be reactive but become proactive. Heat strokes are a serious medical condition. In 2015, 2422 people died due to heat strokes. According to the government, during a heatwave, one must avoid going out between 12 to 4 pm. But does a farmer or a construction worker have that privilege? No, right? The government can take a simple step by covering the footpaths by rooftops and making rooftops on benches. Usually, we have seen villagers eating food under trees. What do you think, why do they do that? Because this gives relief. Now we have removed trees from cities. At least, we can bring some shade. For those people who do not have the privilege of working indoors, their lives will be saved. In 2019, the Indian government formulated an India Cooling Action Plan which has some objectives. And it’s deadline is 2038. The objectives are:

• Reduce refrigerant demand in India by 25%
• Reduce cooling energy requirements in India by 25% to 40%

These targets are very ambitious but are critical for India because our electricity demands are going to skyrocket. And in today’s age, having electricity is an important requirement. Transferring this electricity to consumers at an affordable rate is a challenge. World Bank report, which has studied opportunities in the cooling sector, states that by reforming India’s cooling sector, emissions can be reduced by 60% to 80%. And it can create 2-20 lakh new jobs. Which means, we need to convert the threat of rising temperature into an opportunity. In India, setting up sustainable cold chain systems and operating them has a potential of 17 lakh new jobs. India is at such a stage, that if we took the right steps today, cooling can be provided at an affordable rate to our citizens.

From resources related to heatwaves, we came across an important and interesting thing, that is Urban Heat Islands. Urban Heat Islands mean when the temperature of an urban area increases to the surrounding rural areas. NASA’s ECOSTRESS instrument had noticed in the NCR region, that some pockets were hotter than it’s surrounding areas. These Urban Heat Islands didn’t cool down at night.

Delhi’s temperature was around 35 to 39 degrees. But the temperature in surrounding areas is reduced up to 15 degrees at night.

India is urbanising rapidly. And as new cities are being developed similarly urban heat sinks are being developed. These urban heat sinks are created because our cities are completely concrete forests. We have concrete buildings and roads more than plants and trees. Rural areas have crops, trees, and plants which absorb water from the soil, which is carried to their leaves and gets evaporated from there. This is known as ‘Transpiration’, which works like a natural AC.

Urban Heat Islands are a reason for intensifying India’s heatwave problem. Then how should we counter them? A simple solution is to increase greenery in cities. For urban cooling, we are ignoring prime real estate and that is Rooftops. NASA Goddard Institute published a study which said that rooftop gardens having different types of plants reduced the effects of heat islands. Because these plants naturally keep the surroundings cooler and act as natural AC. Ultimately, our attitude regarding climate events needs to change. At an individual level, we need to make our surroundings more green. In your society, you can plant trees in your neighbourhood. You can start rooftop gardening. So on an individual level, we can save our environment and economy.

Conclusion:

Environment & economy are connected. Our food & rising temperatures are connected.

We need this generation to understand this connection. So that we can appreciate what we have. And most importantly, preserve it. 

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