South Asia is unraveling—Afghanistan collapses, Sri Lanka defaults, Bangladesh erupts, Nepal protests. Amid such turmoil, can India truly remain untouched?. These upheavals reveal not isolated failures but a regional pattern of systemic fragility. Yet, much scholarly and policy discourse continues to cast India as immune—its $4 trillion GDP, rapid digital expansion, and global diplomatic posture invoked as a shield against such turmoil. This selective framing creates an epistemic blind spot, overlooking how India’s own fiscal stress, caste-coded inequalities, youth unemployment, and rising religious majoritarianism resonate with the very vulnerabilities destabilizing its neighbors. This study interrogates the myth of Indian exceptionalism by situating the country within South Asia’s shared crises of governance, demography, and legitimacy. Using a mixed-method approach that combines policy analysis with secondary data on fiscal deficits, unemployment trends, and regional trade flows, it demonstrates that India’s vulnerabilities are neither peripheral nor benign. The findings suggest that, notwithstanding its global ambitions, India is deeply entangled in regional fragility: agrarian distress, erosion of institutional autonomy, and social polarization mirror the fissures of South Asia at large. The broader argument advanced here is that Indian immunity is less a geopolitical reality than a rhetorical construct reinforcing cultural hegemony. The paper recommends moving beyond triumphalist narratives of Atmanirbhar Bharat toward regionally integrated strategies anchored in transparency, fiscal prudence, and social justice. The broader contribution advanced here is to expose the ‘myth of Indian immunity’—a rhetorical construct that portrays India as shielded, while in fact masking vulnerabilities that echo its neighbors’ crises.”

What happens when the region surrounding India—home to nearly two billion people—repeatedly tips into crisis? In August 2021, Afghanistan’s elected government collapsed, plunging the nation into chaos. Within months, the United Nations declared its economy had “basically collapsed” (UN News, 2024)1. By 2025, the World Bank cautiously noted signs of recovery, yet Afghanistan remained 1 UN News. (2024). Afghanistan’s economy collapsed, trapped in uncertainty (World Bank, 2025; UNDP, 2025)2. The fragility did not stop there. In 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt, forcing its citizens into the streets. In 2024, Bangladesh saw the dramatic fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government amid protests (House of Commons Library, 2024). And in 2025, Nepal’s Gen Z protests over a social media ban left 17 dead, exposing the volatility of youth discontent (Washington Post, 2025)3. From Kabul to Colombo, instability has become the regional norm.

In this essay, “turmoil” refers to overlapping disruptions: political upheavals, economic collapse, migration pressures, and governance breakdowns. The Fragile States Index (2024) ranks much of South Asia under “elevated warning,” underscoring that fragility is systemic, not episodic. The timeline of crises between 2021 and 2025 reveals a clear trend: one state after another has buckled under stress.

Where does that leave India? With the world’s fifth-largest economy, relatively strong institutions, and diversified partnerships, India often appears as South Asia’s “regional anchor.” Yet geography and history tie it tightly to its neighbors. Porous borders with Nepal and Bangladesh, deep trade with Sri Lanka, and cultural interdependencies mean India cannot entirely distance itself. Can a nation remain stable when surrounded by turmoil?

This paradox sets up the essay’s central question: India’s stability is less immune than insulated—its buffers are real but fragile, and without fiscal discipline, youth employment reforms, and political pluralism, the country risks becoming the next epicenter of South Asian fragility. This essay interrogates what I call the ‘myth of Indian immunity’—the assumption that India’s economic scale and democratic continuity shield it from the fragilities consuming its neighbors.

Country Case Studies:

Afghanistan

Afghanistan stands as the starkest reminder that when external scaffolding is withdrawn, fragile states can disintegrate almost overnight. Afghanistan’s political collapse in August 2021 inaugurated one of the most acute governance and humanitarian breakdowns in recent memory. The abrupt withdrawal of international forces dismantled existing state structures, while foreign reserves were frozen and external aid suspended, effectively paralyzing the economy (UN News, 2024)4. Structural dependency on aid, combined with decades of institutional fragility, created fertile ground for systemic collapse. By 2025, Afghanistan’s GDP had contracted by more than 30 percent compared to pre-2021 levels, with over 70 percent of the population living below the poverty line (World Bank, 2025; UNDP, 2025). 5. 5 World Bank. (2025). Afghanistan Development Update. 

The immediate consequences were catastrophic: widespread food insecurity, mass unemployment, and intensified displacement toward Pakistan and Iran. Informal migratory pressures, including into India, underscored the regionalized dimension of the crisis. For New Delhi, the Afghan collapse sharpened concerns regarding cross-border extremism and refugee inflows, both of which hold destabilizing potential.

By contrast, if Afghanistan epitomized state failure following geopolitical withdrawal, Sri Lanka demonstrated the devastating consequences of fiscal recklessness and debt dependency.

Afghanistan’s collapse is not just a distant tragedy; it underscores the risks India faces from uncontrolled migration, radicalization, and regional instability. For New Delhi, the lesson is clear: weak governance and dependency on external forces can unravel a state overnight—risks that India must guard against in its own fiscal and social domains.

Sri Lanka

If Afghanistan collapsed through geopolitical withdrawal, Sri Lanka’s implosion was homegrown—an economic crisis scripted by fiscal excess and political hubris. Sri Lanka’s sovereign debt default in April 2022 constituted the country’s most severe economic crisis since independence. Years of populist tax cuts, unsustainable borrowing, and the accumulation of external debt—approximately 40 percent owed to bilateral and multilateral lenders—undermined fiscal sovereignty (IMF, 2025a; IMF, 2025b)6. The external shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with the Russia–Ukraine conflict, aggravated import bills, driving inflation to over 50 percent and depleting reserves (IMF, 2025c)7.

The immediate repercussions were profound: acute shortages of fuel and medicine, prolonged blackouts, and nationwide protests demanding accountability. The political fallout culminated in the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Although subsequent IMF programs and a debt restructuring deal with China’s EXIM Bank offered a lifeline (Reuters, 2025; AP News, 2025), 8The path to recovery remains fragile. For India, which extended over $4 billion in emergency credit and humanitarian supplies, the episode reinforced its role as a regional stabilizer and highlighted the geopolitical dividends of economic diplomacy.

Similarly, if Sri Lanka’s turmoil arose from fiscal mismanagement, Bangladesh’s 2024 upheaval stemmed from the combustible interaction of authoritarian consolidation and financial stress.

Sri Lanka’s sovereign default is a stark warning for India: unchecked fiscal deficits and excessive borrowing can erode stability even in seemingly resilient democracies. India’s high public debt and subsidy commitments mirror some of these vulnerabilities, reminding policymakers that economic size alone cannot guarantee immunity. 8Reuters. (2025). India’s FY25 fiscal deficit seen at 4.7–4.8% GDP. 

Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s turmoil was not triggered by war or default, but by the combustible mix of authoritarian overreach and youth-driven resistance. Bangladesh descended into crisis in 2024 when mass mobilizations forced the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after weeks of escalating protests (House of Commons Library, 2024). At the root lay both political and macroeconomic vulnerabilities: democratic backsliding, increasing concentration of executive power, and systemic weaknesses in the banking sector. Empirical assessments revealed that external debt levels nearly doubled between 2015 and 2023, while foreign reserves contracted sharply under import-driven pressures (Ahamed & Chowdhury, 2025)9. These vulnerabilities intersected with generational discontent, amplified by the digital sphere, as youth movements utilized platforms like Facebook to shape collective identities during the so-called “Monsoon Uprising”10 (Monsoon Uprising, 2025).

The immediate consequences included violent confrontations between security forces and demonstrators, significant capital flight, and disruptions to the garment industry—the backbone of Bangladesh’s export economy. Regionally, these disruptions had cascading implications for India, particularly through supply-chain linkages and cross-border migration flows.

Taken together, while Bangladesh’s unrest reflected authoritarian overreach colliding with youth mobilization, Nepal’s 2025 turmoil was triggered by the politics of digital repression and generational alienation.

Bangladesh’s political collapse demonstrates how authoritarian overreach and youth anger can converge into regime change. With India experiencing rising polarization and widespread youth unemployment, the turbulence across the border is less a warning from afar and more a mirror of the risks brewing at home. Nepal

In Nepal, even a ban on TikTok was enough to ignite nationwide protests—proof that digital governance can become a fault line as explosive as debt or war. In early 2025, Nepal was convulsed by protests following the government’s abrupt ban on TikTok and other social media platforms. What began as a digital policy intervention quickly escalated into nationwide demonstrations, exposing the depth of disillusionment among younger citizens (Washington Post, 2025)11. Security forces responded with force, leading to at least 17 deaths in clashes with protesters (AP News, 2025).

The underlying causes extended beyond the ban itself: high unemployment, entrenched corruption, and weak governance structures had eroded political legitimacy. The social media restrictions became 11 in the Washington Post. (2025). Nepal Gen Z protests over social media ban  a catalyst, crystallizing broader frustrations among Generation Z with systemic exclusion. The state was ultimately compelled to lift the ban under domestic and international pressure, but the episode revealed acute fragility within Nepal’s democratic institutions (Times of India, 2025)12. Regionally, the unrest resonated as a cautionary tale for India, where digital governance and youth alienation could converge into similar flashpoints.

By contrast, collectively, these cases—Afghanistan’s state collapse, Sri Lanka’s fiscal implosion, Bangladesh’s political overthrow, and Nepal’s digital unrest—reveal multiple trajectories of turmoil that frame the comparative analysis with India.

Nepal’s digital protests reveal how quickly disillusioned youth can mobilize when silenced by state overreach. For India—where digital governance, surveillance tools, and rising youth frustration are already contentious—Nepal’s unrest is a preview of challenges that could surface domestically if democratic freedoms are curtailed.

Comparative Analysis: India vs Its Neighbours

Placed beside its neighbors, India appears like a fortress—but closer inspection reveals cracks in its walls that look eerily familiar. The preceding crises illustrate South Asia’s deep fragility. Yet, India’s trajectory appears distinct: its larger economy, stronger institutions, and more diverse social fabric have so far prevented similar implosions. A comparative lens highlights both India’s resilience and its hidden vulnerabilities as described below: 

1. Economic Buffers 

India’s economy, now approaching a $4 trillion GDP in 2025, dwarfs the combined size of its neighbors, providing critical insulation from shocks (World Bank, 2024). Unlike Afghanistan, where foreign aid accounted for 40 percent of GDP before 2021, or Nepal, where nearly a quarter of GDP derives from remittances, India’s growth rests on a diversified base of services, manufacturing, and agriculture. Foreign reserves exceeding $600 billion, coupled with steady remittance inflows from a global diaspora, provide further cushions against volatility (ORF, 2024)13.

Similarly, Sri Lanka’s reliance on external borrowing precipitated its 2022 sovereign default, while Bangladesh’s garment-dominated export basket left it exposed to global demand contractions. India’s more heterogeneous trade structure, with IT services and pharmaceuticals balancing manufacturing exports, reduces single-sector dependence. Nevertheless, India faces vulnerabilities of its own: a persistent fiscal deficit above 6 percent of GDP, inflationary pressures in food and fuel, and high youth unemployment threaten to erode these buffers. As The Hindu (2024)14 observed in the context of Sri Lanka, “macroeconomic complacency can turn insulation into illusion.” 14 The Hindu. (2024). Why India must learn from Sri Lanka’s mistakes. 

2. Institutional Differences 

Institutional resilience is another domain where India diverges from its neighbors. Sri Lanka’s crisis was magnified by presidential overreach and weak parliamentary checks, while Bangladesh’s democratic erosion culminated in regime collapse in 2024. Nepal’s unstable coalitions, frequently paralyzed by intra-party rivalries, and Afghanistan’s Taliban theocracy illustrate contrasting models of fragility.

In comparison, India’s democratic continuity, backed by an independent judiciary, a relatively autonomous Reserve Bank of India, and a functioning Election Commission, has thus far upheld systemic stability (World Bank, 2024). Press freedom and civil society remain stronger than in most neighboring states, even if recent declines in democratic indices point to creeping stressors. Polarization, majoritarian tendencies, and challenges to media independence reveal that these institutions, while sturdier than elsewhere in South Asia, are not unassailable (ORF, 2024). Indeed, the erosion of checks and balances in neighboring states illustrates the slippery slope India must actively guard against.

3. Social Fault Lines

Finally, social cohesion constitutes both a resource and a risk. South Asian states are destabilized not only due to economic and institutional weakness but also because of unresolved social cleavages. Afghanistan’s ethnic and sectarian divides, Sri Lanka’s Sinhala–Tamil–Buddhist fault lines, Bangladesh’s confrontation between an authoritarian state and civil society, and Nepal’s generational alienation all triggered explosive unrest.

India’s vast diversity, encompassing caste, religion, region, and language, has historically provided pluralistic resilience but also contains latent fractures. Rising religious polarization, persistent caste-based inequities, farmer protests, and widening regional disparities mirror the kinds of pressures that tipped neighbors into turmoil. As The Hindu (2024) cautions, ignoring these “everyday frictions” risks magnifying them into systemic crises. The comparative lesson is clear: India’s social compact is broader, but it is also strained, and instability in smaller states reveals how quickly suppressed grievances can surface.

By closing synthesis, taken together, India’s economic size, institutional resilience, and social diversity distinguish it sharply from its neighbors. Yet, the very pressures that destabilized Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal—fiscal mismanagement, institutional erosion, and social polarization—are present in India in latent form. As the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (2024) and ORF’s regional analysis (2024) both emphasize, resilience must be actively sustained. India is not immune, but cautiously insulated—its stability rests on the vigilance with which it learns from its neighborhood’s cautionary tales.

Vulnerabilities for India

India’s buffers have so far kept collapse at bay—but insulation is not immunity, and the storm clouds gathering nearby are drifting closer. While India has thus far avoided the acute collapses witnessed in Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal, its buffers are not invincible. The country’s resilience has often been attributed to its larger economic base, diversified sectors, and relatively stable democratic framework. Yet such advantages should not obscure the fact that India continues to grapple with the same structural pressures—fiscal mismanagement, entrenched social divides, and deepening political polarization—that destabilized its neighbors (NDTV, 2024; Reuters, 2025)15. What distinguishes India is not the absence of these vulnerabilities, but rather their scale, complexity, and the capacity of institutions to manage them. The question, therefore, is not whether India is immune, but whether its existing buffers are sufficiently robust to withstand compounded shocks—be they fiscal, social, or political—without sliding into patterns of fragility reminiscent of its neighborhood. This requires a closer interrogation of the underlying vulnerabilities that remain concealed beneath the surface of India’s growth narrative.

Fiscal Vulnerabilities

India’s fiscal position reflects both resilience and fragility. The government projects its FY25 deficit at around 4.7–4.8 percent of GDP (Reuters, 2025)16, but total public debt remains elevated, at nearly 83 percent of GDP according to IMF assessments. Subsidy commitments—particularly food, fuel, and fertilizer—strain the budget and limit fiscal flexibility (NDTV, 2024). This mirrors, on a different scale, Sri Lanka’s fiscal overstretch before its 2022 default.

Youth unemployment magnifies the problem: over 83 percent of India’s unemployed are under the age of 30 (LiveMint, 2025), and more than 20 percent of youth remain jobless despite graduating into a growing economy (The Hindu, 2025)17. The Economic Survey further reveals that only 51 percent of Indian graduates are considered “job-ready” (India Today, 2024). Such structural mismatches risk translating demographic dividends into demographic distress.

While India’s larger and diversified economy cushions external shocks better than its neighbors, it remains heavily dependent on global demand for IT services and energy imports. An oil price spike or global recession could significantly weaken fiscal stability, resembling in part the external-dependence trap that accelerated Sri Lanka’s implosion.

1. Social Vulnerabilities

India’s social landscape reveals persistent inequities that can destabilize growth if ignored. Inequality has widened sharply: Oxfam (2023)18 reports that the top 1 percent of Indians hold more than 40 18 Oxfam. (2023). Survival of the Richest: The India Supplement. Oxfam India percent of total wealth. Agrarian distress, symbolized by the nationwide farmer protests of 2020–21, highlights structural grievances in the countryside that remain only partially addressed.

At the same time, India is experiencing rising religious polarization, with sporadic communal violence risking escalation into more systemic instability. Rapid urban migration, job precarity, and the disillusionment of unemployed youth have further intensified grievances. These trends mirror the triggers of unrest elsewhere in South Asia—youth mobilization in Nepal, food and fuel shortages in Sri Lanka, and generational frustration in Bangladesh—suggesting India faces similar social tinderboxes, only on a much larger scale.

India’s scale is both a strength and a vulnerability: unrest in one state or sector can quickly ripple across the country. This interconnectedness magnifies the potential consequences of social unrest compared to its smaller neighbors.

2. Political Vulnerabilities

India’s political system remains more stable than most of its neighbors, but warning signs are emerging. Freedom House downgraded India to “partly free” in 2024, citing pressures on civil liberties and media independence. The dominance of a single national party, combined with the erosion of opposition strength, raises concerns about the long-term health of pluralism.

Shrinking civic space is another concern. Expansions of surveillance tools, including facial recognition technologies, have sparked fears about excessive state monitoring (Financial Times, 2024)19. Meanwhile, federal tensions—visible in clashes between the central government and states like Punjab, West Bengal, and southern regions—demonstrate the fragility of India’s federal compact.

This trajectory resembles, albeit in less acute form, the institutional erosion that weakened Bangladesh before its 2024 regime crisis and the overcentralization that accelerated Sri Lanka’s governance breakdown. Political centralization may deliver short-term control, but without inclusive legitimacy it risks long-term fragility.

In closing synthesis, India’s vulnerabilities mirror those of its neighbors—fiscal deficits akin to Sri Lanka, social unrest reminiscent of Nepal and Bangladesh, and political polarization echoing regional trends. Yet, they unfold on a larger canvas, with greater consequences for stability. The danger lies less in sudden collapse and more in a gradual erosion of resilience, leaving the country exposed if fiscal, social, and political pressures converge simultaneously.

Constructive Lessons India Should Adopt

Every collapse in South Asia carries a warning label for India. The question is whether New Delhi will read those warnings—or repeat them. The regional crises of recent years make clear that India cannot take its stability for granted. One crucial lesson concerns fiscal prudence. Sri Lanka’s collapse, 19 Financial Times. (2024). India expands facial recognition amid surveillance fears triggered by reckless external borrowing and the absence of binding fiscal rules, illustrates the danger of allowing deficits to expand unchecked. For India—already managing a debt burden close to 83% of GDP—the imperative is to strengthen fiscal discipline through credible expenditure ceilings and transparent oversight of state-owned enterprises, while simultaneously expanding targeted safety nets to protect the vulnerable from inflationary shocks (IMF, 2025)20.

Equally important are stronger social protections and the creation of sustainable livelihoods. Afghanistan’s experience underscores the perils of inadequate humanitarian support and fragile income systems that left large swathes of the population dependent on external relief (UNDP, 2025)21. By contrast, India must invest in resilient welfare mechanisms and ensure that food, fuel, and health security are insulated from global disruptions. Linked to this is the challenge of youth employment. With more than 20% of young Indians facing joblessness and many more trapped in informal or precarious work, the frustrations that fueled protests in Nepal resonate strongly. The rise of digital-savvy youth movements there demonstrates that exclusion can rapidly escalate into unrest unless states expand meaningful opportunities for education, skilling, and decent work (Springer, 2024; Washington Post, 2025)22.

Another priority lies in safeguarding pluralism and political legitimacy. Bangladesh’s prolonged political crisis, rooted in the marginalization of opposition voices and shrinking civic space, offers a sobering reminder that economic growth alone cannot substitute for inclusive governance (Commons Library, 2024). For India, where polarization and institutional pressures are mounting, preserving democratic freedoms, protecting minority rights, and ensuring an open civic sphere remain essential to long-term resilience.

Taken together, these regional lessons point toward a constructive agenda: prudent fiscal management, inclusive welfare, youth empowerment, and robust democratic safeguards. If India learns from its neighbors’ fragilities and reforms accordingly, it can strengthen the very buffers that distinguish it from their crises and chart a path of resilience rather than vulnerability.

Conclusion

South Asia’s crises are no longer cautionary tales for India—they are mirrors reflecting what could unfold at home if vigilance falters. The turmoil across Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal demonstrates that fragility in South Asia is systemic, not episodic. India’s size, institutions, and global posture provide insulation, but insulation is not the same as immunity. The real danger lies not in sudden collapse but in a slow erosion of resilience. Fiscal overstretch, jobless growth, and creeping authoritarianism have already shaken India’s neighbors; India carries the same vulnerabilities, only on a larger and more consequential scale.

Unless India undertakes structural reforms, it risks walking the same path. Fiscal prudence must replace complacency, or India may stumble into Sri Lanka–style debt traps. Large-scale, dignified 22 Springer. (2024). Employment Vulnerability Among Young Indian Workers. Employment must be created, or Nepal’s generational unrest will find echoes at home. Democratic pluralism must be protected, or Bangladesh’s authoritarian breakdown will become a cautionary preview rather than a distant spectacle.

The broader lesson is simple: India cannot afford triumphalist narratives of immunity. To secure its future, it must acknowledge its fragilities, learn from its neighborhood’s mistakes, and build resilience through inclusive growth, institutional independence, and social justice. If vigilance gives way to complacency, the myth of Indian immunity will collapse—and India itself may become the epicenter of South Asian turmoil it once believed it could escape. India’s choice is clear: either confront these vulnerabilities head-on or risk becoming the next cautionary tale of South Asia.

“India may not be immune to South Asia’s turmoil — it may only be the next chapter in the same story”

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