The New Geography of Power

Power in today’s world isn’t just about who controls land, armies, or oil anymore. Increasingly, it’s about who controls the minerals that make modern life—and modern economies—tick. These critical minerals—like lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, gallium, and tantalum—are the hidden backbone of everything from smartphones and electric cars to satellites and fighter jets. Without them, the technologies driving our future simply wouldn’t exist.

The demand for these minerals is soaring. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that, if the world sticks to net-zero goals, we could need four to six times more critical minerals by

2040 than we do today. To put it in perspective: an electric vehicle requires six times more mineral inputs than a conventional car, and wind turbines demand nine times more mineral resources per unit of power compared to gas-fired plants. These numbers show that minerals are no longer just industrial inputs—they’ve become tools of global influence and strategy.

This shift has introduced a new kind of power game, one scholars sometimes call Machtpolitik, or power politics driven by control over materials rather than borders. Countries that dominate critical mineral supply chains can shape trade, technology, and even diplomatic outcomes. At the same time, nations that depend on imports face new risks, from price swings to geopolitical pressure.

For India, this is especially important. As one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies, and with big ambitions in renewable energy, electric mobility, and advanced manufacturing, India needs reliable access to these minerals to fuel its growth. The government’s National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM), launched in 2025, is a step toward exploring domestic resources, securing strategic partnerships, and reducing dependence on imports.

India’s challenge—and opportunity—is clear: it must navigate a complex global market, balance strategic interests, and secure the minerals it needs to power its future. Understanding the mix of minerals, markets, and Machtpolitik is key to seeing where India stands in the global resource race.

Defining Critical Minerals: Economic Value and Strategic Risk

Critical minerals are distinguished by two intertwined features: high economic value and high supply risk. Unlike bulk commodities such as coal or iron ore, which are needed in large quantities and have substitutes, critical minerals are used in relatively small amounts but are irreplaceable for specific technologies. Even a brief disruption in their supply can ripple across industries, causing delays in manufacturing, technology deployment, and even national defence programs.

Globally, a set of minerals—including lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare earth elements (REEs), gallium, germanium, tungsten, tantalum, and vanadium—has emerged as “critical.” These minerals underpin a remarkable range of sectors. From renewable energy and

semiconductors to aerospace, telecommunications, defence electronics, and medical technologies, they are the invisible threads holding together modern industrial and technological infrastructure.

In India, the Ministry of Mines identified 30 critical minerals in 2023, reflecting national priorities in clean energy, defence indigenisation, space exploration, and advanced manufacturing. India’s approach to critical minerals is dynamic: as technologies evolve and new strategic needs arise, the list may expand or contract. This flexibility allows the country to respond to shifting global markets, emerging technologies, and geopolitical developments.

What elevates critical minerals from mere economic inputs to strategic assets is the geographical concentration of supply chains. Unlike widely distributed commodities, the production and processing of critical minerals are often dominated by a handful of countries, creating vulnerabilities that go beyond market forces. For example:

• Cobalt: Over 70% of global cobalt mining occurs in the Democratic Republic of Congo, making the industry susceptible to political instability and regulatory shifts.
• Lithium: Nearly 60% of lithium refining is concentrated in China, giving it considerable leverage over the global EV and battery markets.
• Rare Earth Elements (REEs): While other countries hold significant reserves, China controls over 85% of rare earth processing capacity, effectively making it the gatekeeper of these essential materials.

This uneven distribution transforms minerals into geopolitical instruments. Countries with access and processing capabilities can influence global technology supply chains, impose export controls, and negotiate strategic alliances. Conversely, nations that depend heavily on imports face supply risks that can affect economic growth, technological progress, and national security.

In essence, critical minerals are more than commodities—they are strategic levers of power, shaping the economic and political fortunes of nations in the 21st century. For India, understanding these dynamics is crucial, as it seeks to balance domestic production, international partnerships, and technological advancement while mitigating exposure to global supply shocks.

Markets Under Stress: The Political Economy of Mineral Supply Chains

Critical mineral markets are fundamentally different from traditional commodity markets. Unlike coal, iron, or agricultural commodities, these markets are defined by long project timelines, high capital intensity, technological complexity, and heavy regulatory oversight. Developing a new mine is not a short-term investment—it often takes 10 to 15 years from exploration to production. Setting up the necessary processing and refining infrastructure is equally demanding, requiring advanced technology, consistent policy support, and substantial financial resources. This combination of factors creates structural rigidity: supply cannot respond quickly to sudden spikes in demand, making these markets inherently vulnerable to disruption.

China’s dominance over critical mineral value chains provides a clear example of how markets and state power intersect. Since the 1990s, Beijing has pursued a deliberate strategy of vertical integration, controlling everything from mining and refining to manufacturing and export regulation. By owning or influencing key nodes across the supply chain, China can stabilise domestic prices, influence global pricing, set technical standards, and leverage its position for geopolitical advantage. This approach demonstrates that control over minerals is as much about political strategy as it is about economics.

Recent events have shown how mineral markets can be weaponised. In 2023, China imposed export restrictions on gallium and germanium, two critical inputs for semiconductors. These measures caused immediate disruptions across global semiconductor supply chains, highlighting the risks of over-reliance on a single-country supplier. The episode served as a stark reminder that critical minerals are not just industrial commodities—they are strategic instruments, capable of shaping technology, trade, and diplomacy.

For India, this presents both opportunity and caution. The country has been integrating more deeply into global mineral markets, importing lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements to fuel its clean energy and electronics ambitions. However, participating in these markets without strategic safeguards could reproduce the vulnerabilities India has faced in sectors like oil and electronics, where over-dependence on a few foreign suppliers has historically constrained national policy options.

To navigate these risks, India must combine market integration with strategic insulation. This means developing domestic resources, investing in refining and processing capacity, building diversified international partnerships, and maintaining a long-term vision that balances economic growth with security of supply. In short, managing critical mineral markets is not just an economic challenge—it is a strategic imperative for India’s industrial and technological future.

Critical Minerals and India’s Energy Transition

India’s energy transition is among the most mineral-intensive in the world, driven by the scale of its developmental ambitions and its commitment to low-carbon growth. The country has pledged to achieve 500 GW of non-fossil fuel energy capacity by 2030, a target that depends heavily on the deployment of solar, wind, and energy storage technologies. Achieving this goal will require not only financial investment and policy support but also a secure and sustainable supply of critical minerals.

Solar Power

India’s solar capacity crossed 64 GW in 2024 and is projected to exceed 280 GW by 2030. Solar photovoltaics rely on minerals such as silicon, silver, tellurium, indium, and gallium. While India has made progress in domestic module assembly, much of the upstream value chain— particularly wafers and polysilicon—remains import-dependent. This dependence exposes India to supply shocks, price volatility, and geopolitical risks, making diversification and domestic development of upstream capabilities a strategic priority.

Wind Energy

Wind turbines, particularly those using permanent magnets, require rare earth elements (REEs) such as neodymium and dysprosium. India’s wind energy capacity, currently around 42 GW, is expected to rise to 140 GW by 2030, significantly intensifying demand for REEs. Given that global rare earth processing is concentrated in a few countries, India’s wind ambitions reinforce the need for secure supply chains and strategic stockpiles of these essential minerals.

Electric Mobility

India aims for 30% electric vehicle (EV) penetration by 2030, a target that will dramatically accelerate demand for lithium-ion batteries. The critical minerals that power these batteries— lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite—will see exponential growth in demand, with lithium and cobalt currently almost entirely imported. This dependency underscores the strategic urgency for India to develop domestic mining projects, explore international partnerships, and invest in recycling technologies to reduce long-term vulnerability.

Energy Storage

Grid-scale battery storage is central to managing the intermittency of renewable energy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global battery storage capacity will need to increase six-fold by 2030 to meet climate targets. For India, this further emphasizes the critical role of minerals in the energy transition: without secure supplies of lithium, cobalt, and other essential elements, the country’s renewable energy targets could face serious bottlenecks.

The National Critical Mineral Mission: Institutional Architecture

The National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) marks a significant evolution in India’s approach to mineral governance, reflecting the strategic recognition that critical minerals are as important to national development as energy, infrastructure, or defence. Launched with a public funding allocation of ₹16,300 crore and expected private investments of ₹18,000 crore, the NCMM is designed as a comprehensive, multi-pronged framework that integrates policy, industry, and innovation to secure India’s mineral future.

The mission rests on seven key pillars:

• Domestic Exploration and Mining – Expanding exploration of minerals across the country to reduce import dependency and build resilient supply chains.
• Overseas Asset Acquisition – Acquiring stakes in international mining projects to ensure strategic access to high-demand minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements.
• Processing and Refining Capacity – Developing indigenous refining and processing facilities to move up the value chain and reduce reliance on foreign refiners.
• Recycling and Circular Economy – Promoting the recovery of critical minerals from waste streams to complement mining efforts.
• Research, Development, and Innovation – Fostering technological innovation to improve extraction, processing, and mineral efficiency.
• Human Resource Development – Training experts in exploration, mining, and mineral processing to create a skilled workforce for the sector.
• Strategic Stockpiling – Establishing reserves of critical minerals to mitigate supply disruptions and market volatility.

Complementing these pillars, amendments to the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act empower the central government to auction critical minerals, ensuring coordinated national oversight and a transparent, strategic approach to resource allocation. Together, these measures position NCMM as a central instrument of India’s long-term mineral security, blending economic, technological, and geopolitical considerations.

Beyond Extraction: Recycling, Innovation, and Circularity

The NCMM also recognises that securing mineral supply cannot rely solely on extraction. India generates over 3.2 million tonnes of e-waste annually, yet less than 20% of valuable materials are recovered. This presents a major opportunity for urban mining, where discarded electronics, batteries, and other devices become secondary sources of critical minerals. Leveraging this potential can reduce import dependence, lower environmental impact, and create new economic opportunities.

To accelerate this, the government has launched a ₹1,500 crore recycling incentive scheme with ambitious targets:

• Create 270 kiloton annual recycling capacity for e-waste and other mineral-bearing materials
• Recover 40 kilotons of critical minerals annually, feeding them back into industrial supply chains.
• Generate 70,000 jobs, supporting skill development in a high-tech, environmentally sustainable sector.
• Attract ₹8,000 crore in private investment, encouraging innovation and participation from domestic and global players.

At the same time, India has set a target of 1,000 patents in the critical minerals ecosystem by 2030, signalling a push towards technological self-reliance. By combining recycling, innovation, and a circular economy approach with traditional mining and strategic reserves, India aims to future-proof its mineral security while promoting sustainability, economic growth, and industrial competitiveness.

Machtpolitik and Mineral Diplomacy

In the 21st century, critical minerals have moved beyond industrial importance—they are now central to foreign policy and global power dynamics. Nations are no longer just trading resources; they are forming strategic alliances, signing bilateral agreements, and reshaping trade rules to secure access to minerals essential for technology, defence, and energy transitions. This intersection of resources and geopolitics is a clear example of Machtpolitik, where control over critical materials translates directly into global influence.

For India, mineral diplomacy has become a strategic priority. The country is actively pursuing partnerships across the globe—from Australia and Africa to Latin America and Southeast Asia— to diversify its supply sources of lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and other critical minerals. These partnerships take multiple forms: joint mining ventures, technology collaborations, long-term supply agreements, and investment in overseas exploration projects. By doing so, India not only secures raw materials for its industrial and energy ambitions but also strengthens its geopolitical standing in a world where mineral supply chains increasingly shape international relations.

India’s engagement also extends to multilateral platforms, including forums on energy transition, critical mineral trade, and sustainable development. Such participation allows India to influence global standards, advocate for fair trade practices, and integrate its mineral strategy with broader economic and environmental policies. Through overseas joint ventures and diplomatic outreach, India is gradually building a network of partnerships that mitigates dependence on any single supplier while positioning the country as a reliable and influential player in global mineral markets.

In short, mineral diplomacy is not just about securing resources; it is about leveraging strategic relationships, diversifying supply, and translating mineral access into economic and geopolitical advantage. For India, success in this arena is integral to both its energy transition ambitions and broader national security goals.

Securing India’s Mineral Future

Critical minerals have become the cornerstone of modern economies, energy transitions, and technological leadership. As this article has explored, they are not just raw materials—they are strategic assets, shaping markets, foreign policy, and global power dynamics in an era defined by Machtpolitik. For India, the stakes are high. Its ambitious renewable energy targets, electric mobility plans, and advanced manufacturing goals depend directly on access to lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, and other essential minerals.

India faces a dual challenge: managing supply vulnerabilities while building domestic capabilities. The launch of the National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) demonstrates a comprehensive approach—combining exploration, overseas partnerships, processing capacity, recycling, research, and strategic stockpiling. At the same time, initiatives in domestic mining and international collaborations in Australia, South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia reflect India’s proactive engagement with global mineral markets. By diversifying supply sources and investing in technological self-reliance, India is reducing its exposure to external shocks and asserting its position in the global minerals race.

The energy transition further amplifies the importance of critical minerals. India’s push for 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity, rapid EV adoption, and grid-scale storage highlights the mineral-intensive nature of its clean energy ambitions. Without secure access to these materials, even the most ambitious policies risk being delayed or derailed.

Looking ahead, India’s success in the global critical minerals landscape will depend on strategic foresight, technological innovation, and sustained international engagement. By aligning domestic resource development with global partnerships, fostering circularity through recycling,

and embedding minerals at the heart of its industrial and foreign policy, India can transform potential vulnerabilities into strategic strengths. In doing so, it not only safeguards its own developmental trajectory but also positions itself as a key player in the 21st-century race for resources, technology, and geopolitical influence.

Control over critical minerals is control over the future

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA), The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions
• Press Information Bureau (Government of India), National Critical Mineral Mission — identification of 30 critical minerals, amendments to the MMDR Act
• Ministry of Mines, Government of India, NCMM Official Document — details on the ₹16,300 crore National Critical Mineral Mission
• Economic Times / Prime Minister of India releases — Union Cabinet approval of the ₹1,500 crore incentive scheme for critical mineral recycling under NCMM, expected to develop recycling capacity and create jobs.
• Reuters, India scraps customs duties on critical mineral scrap — India’s budget measures to remove duties on waste and scrap of critical minerals to support circular supply chains.
• World Economic Forum, Why critical minerals are key to the energy transition — overview of global supply risk and demand drivers for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt and rare earths in clean energy technologies. 

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