As the war between Russia and Ukraine intensifies, international pressure from other countries continues to mount for a ceasefire and peace treaty. The recent peace talks are being held in Turkey, with both the heads of the nations being absent from these crucial negotiations. Instead, Russia and Ukraine have sent their respective senior officials, which raises questions of whether meaningful progress can be made without the presidents of both the countries.
Despite the skepticism, Turkey remains quite hopeful of the much-anticipated talks. The Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, was quoted as saying, “Turkey remains committed to being a bridge for peace in this conflict.” He further added, “Even without the leaders present, dialogue must continue.” It is time to tell whether these peace talks result in a fruitful outcome or not.
A Brief Timeline of the War
The seeds of war between Russia and Ukraine were sown back in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, followed by the Ukrainian Revolution and the ousting of the then-president, Viktor Yanukovych. This hardship was further followed by some stability provided by the 2015 Minsk II Agreement, mediated by France and Germany. However, the peace was short-lived. Both countries soon found themselves violating the Agreement, engaged in a blame game, and the ceasefire turned out to be futile.
The situation dramatically changed in 2022 when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, citing concerns over NATO expansion and to protect its Russian-speaking population. Since then, both countries have witnessed huge losses of human population, damage to houses and property, as well as a hit to their economies. Several rounds of peace talks have been initiated since then, but more or less, the result has always been the same. The only optimistic talks were held in Istanbul in 2022, but that too fell apart due to issues like Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty and Russia’s military demands. Soon after the failed talks, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister said, “Russia does not want peace – it wants submission.” As it was Istanbul that had tried to broker a peace deal between the two countries, the international community is hopeful of reaching an agreement on a ceasefire through dialogue and deliberation.
The Current Peace Talks in Turkey
The latest peace talks, currently being held in Ankara, Turkey, are an important event. With both the heads of the countries being absent, the world looks upon their respective ministers, who have the responsibility to reach a suitable negotiation. The Russian delegation will be led by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin, a veteran international diplomat. Russia’s counterpart, Ukraine, will be headed by Andriy Yermak, Chief of Staff to President Zelensky, who is also a key member in formulating the foreign policies for the country.
Turkey has once again the charge to mediate the negotiations between both the countries. Turkey, who is a NATO member and also a close ally of both Russia and Ukraine, has stressed on the fact to reach a peaceful conclusion, along with maintaining its geopolitical standing. The Turkish Foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, remarked in the opening talks, “Our aim is to keep communication alive. War thrives on silence – diplomacy, on dialogue.”
Analysts, who have been following the war closely, have noticed a shift in the tone of the talks. Elena Ivanov, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said, “With the leaders absent, there’s less room for political grandstanding.” The peace talks come at a delicate and challenging time when Russia is insistent on demanding recognition of its control over the captured territories while Ukraine is asking for a full withdrawal of the Russian troops from its country. The only agreement point between both countries is that they understand the need to “find a common ground”, which is only possible through dialogue and debate.
Why Putin and Zelensky are Absent
While Putin had remarked last Sunday that he was willing to hold talks with his Ukrainian counterpart “without any preconditions”, it seems that he is in no hurry to hold any talks. Moreover, Trump, who is currently serving his second term and is on a visit to the Middle East, was quoted as saying, “Look, nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together”. This was enough to suggest that the peace talks will git a roadblock and have no way of going any further. But now the question arises, why didn’t the head of state mark their presence at Ankara? Why were their “low-level delegation” sent in place of them?
Although the peace talks in Turkey have garnered widespread media attention, neither Putin nor Zelensky showed up. It was a well-missed opportunity that could have led to a de-escalation of the ongoing war. Many analysts believe this to be a show of power and diplomacy of both countries. For Putin, it could signify his weak stance on the Ukraine matter, given the firm power of the Russian military. And if any compromise or negotiation were to be made, his diplomatic image would take a hit. Similarly, Zelensky also faces turmoil in his war-torn country. Without getting any concessions from Russia before appearing at any summit, Ukraine looks desperate and helpless. But the analysts believe that their absence makes the situation better. “Without the toplevel egos in the room, negotiators can work more freely,” said Dr. Anton Belov, a Moscow-based political analyst. He further said, “If progress is made here, then a future Zelensky-Putin summit becomes more viable.” Both sides have already lost thousands of civilians, and an equally likely number of soldiers have been wounded and killed. It will be in everyone’s interest if this engagement in Turkey turns out to be effective and brings out an acceptable outcome.
What Happens Next?
With the Turkish President Erdogan presiding over the talks, the international community awaits with bated breath to know what happens behind the closed diplomatic doors. While a full ceasefire is not expected, a small negotiation or even a temporary compromise would provide a respite to both unfriendly neighbours. If a compromise is reached, reopening of humanitarian corridors, exchange of POW’s and a little normalcy of trade and export could be anticipated.
Andriy Yermak, the Ukrainian negotiator, is also quite a realist. “We are not expecting miracles – but we are here because the alternative is more bloodshed, more destruction. Every hour spent talking is an hour not spent fighting”, were the words spoken by the diplomat. Sergey Vershinin, on the other hand, appeared to be a bit more cautious and blunt in his approach: “There is space for dialogue if the West stops fueling illusions in Kyiv. We want stability on our terms – but we want stability.”
As John F. Kennedy said, “Mankind must put an end to war – or war will put an end to mankind.” it is high time that both the countries find a resolution to this ongoing war. After all, no nation has ever won a war in the true sense because in the end, all they are left with is blood and sorrow.