The struggle to balance the urgent need to address climate change with the complexities of a world that only grows more complex with each passing day has never been more prominent. As 2023 turned out to be the hottest year in history, with temperatures spiking to 1.5 degree Celsius above pre–industrial levels on several days, the effects of catastrophes caused by climate change compelled a great segment of the global population to grapple with the new status quo – one where such devastating occurrences would be common, intensifying and less likely to be assuaged by the painstakingly slow efforts to contain the knock-on effects of human activities.

Climate Change is not the only worrying issue on the table, however. The globe is also witnessing major conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan against a geopolitical backdrop of civil unrest and rising authoritarianism. Several countries are already burdened with heavy debt, rising inequality of income and unemployment. A relevant example is the current state of China’s economy standing in stark contrast to the glittering future that country imagined in better days. The European Union is in a desperate race to arm itself as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drags on and the United States is dealing with its turbulent politics at home while attempting to salvage its international interests.

With this evolving kaleidoscope of varying problems and concerns, the climate change crisis is always at risk of being ignored, dismissed or worse – acknowledged in abject defeatism.

Even at this juncture, when the impact of climate change has been felt in all its recurring, life-threatening force by developing and developed nations alike, we find that the collective interests of the global population (which can really only be united in its humanity and means of existence) are far from aligned with the path that leads to climate change adaptation and mitigation. On the practical, reality-based weighing scale, immediate concerns over human survival and sovereignty outweigh concerns about the irreversible changes being wrought upon Earth’s climate by human survival and sovereignty. The apparent contradiction between our acknowledgement of climate change as an inescapable challenge and our flippant pursuance of economic and territorial dominance which enhances the severity of the challenge would only escape the eye of the wilfully blind – and of that kind, the world has plenty.

CLIMATE CHANGE – A SOBERING REALITY

Over the past two decades, the world has witnessed the dire warnings about the consequences of climate change assume more importance and urgency as these very warnings which had earlier been comfortably ignored as predictions of a distant future were validated by observable instances of climate change in action over the course of the previous years. A shift in climatic conditions has been reported and confirmed by meteorologists, climate researchers and scientists all over the world.

Accounting for about two–thirds of total greenhouse gas emissions, CO2 levels are still alarmingly high in the atmosphere, fuelled by the relentless consumption of fossil fuels by the global population. These greenhouse gases are the main contributors to global warming, which has altered conditions in the atmosphere and intensified extreme weather events. 2023 was the warmest year on record and the reports about the severity of the change had arrived even before the year was completed. According to the provisional State of the Climate report by the WMO (World Meteorological Organisation) put forward last year, temperatures in the year had been 1.4 degrees Celsius higher (on average) above the pre-industrial 1850 – 1900 baseline. The report confirmed that greenhouse levels are still increasing (50% more carbon dioxide had been trapped in the atmosphere in comparison to pre-industrial levels), sea surface temperatures and sea levels are rising, the sea ice in Antarctica had hit record lows and extreme weather events like wildfires, floods and elevated temperatures had led to loss of human lives and habitation. The maximum extent of sea ice in Antarctica was 1 million square km less than the previous record low, at the end of the southern hemisphere winter. Sea level rise rate had doubled over the past decade caused by the incessant melting of glaciers and ice sheets and the rise of ocean temperatures. Glaciers in North America and Europe have undergone an intense melting period and the volume of Swiss glaciers has depleted by 10% over the past two years.

Then there is the effect climate change has on the weather and climate patterns. India suffered from heavy rains, floods and landslides on 208 days of the year, with extreme weather events occurring on 123 consecutive days between June and September 2023. As per the report by an independent think tank The Centre for Science and Environment, these extreme weather events resulted in 3,287 deaths, 1.2 lakh animal deaths, and damage to 2.21 million hectares of crop area in the country.

Several countries like Thailand, China and Laos also experienced scorching temperatures in April, with Beijing recording 27 consecutive days of temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius and Vietnam recording its highest temperature ever at 44.1 degrees Celsius. Canada was devastated by blazing wildfires, with an area of 16 million hectares being affected. Wildfires also rampaged through Greece and Maui, leading to loss of lives and livelihoods. Cyclone Daniel struck Libya, overwhelming dams and causing 4000 deaths with nearly 10, 000 citizens missing. Flash floods and heavy rainfall left their unmistakable trail in northern India, the U.S.A. and China, with places like Vermont and Beijing suffering extensive damage due to floods and intense rainfall.

The link between climate change and these unusually severe weather phenomena has been identified by a great majority of the scientific community, with many pointing to the ferocity and frequency of these events as proof. These concerns were highlighted by WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas,

“Greenhouse gas levels are record high. Global temperatures are record-high. Sea level rise is record high. Antarctic sea ice is record low. It’s a deafening cacophony of broken records,”

COP 28 – AND WHAT IT REVEALS ABOUT GLOBAL STANDARDS ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Great expectations were set for the United Nations’ Climate Change Conference held last year in Dubai. It was evident to all attending parties that the goals and objectives set by the Paris agreement had not been met by the countries as the first global stock take (GST) was concluded. However, many hoped to see a definite improvement in the formation of plans and policies by this conference of nations to amplify the process of climate adaptation and conservation in dead earnest. Based on the analysis of the world’s collective progress report (GST) in terms of course correction on climate change, the leaders were well aware that the globe was far from meeting the targets that had previously been set and recognised the need for COP 28 to deliver real solutions.

1. FOSSIL FUELS

The first and most obvious point of contention was the requirement to phase out fossil fuels. While the scientific community has been unanimous in the identification of fossil fuels as a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, the countries in COP 28 were far from united in their respective approaches to the problem. The countries were unable to agree on the terms of the action plan, where some nations desired a concrete step in the right direction by phasing out fossil fuels completely, but this was opposed by several parties, the most prominent of which were oil rich nations, whose economies are heavily dependent on fossil fuel production and consumption. The compromise came down to ‘the beginning of the end’ of the fossil fuel era with ‘a transition away from fossil fuels’ to achieve net zero by 2050. No clear targets or enforceable limits were described.

2. TRIPLING OF RENEWABLE ENERGY

A pledge of tripling the global installed renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11,000 GW by 2030 was made at the conference. There was also a commitment to double the rate of annual improvements in energy efficiency from 2% to roughly 4% every year till 2030. The primary purpose behind this pledge is to reduce dependence on fossil fuels as the primary energy source and keep global average temperatures from breaching the 2 degree Celsius limit since pre-industrial times. The tripling of installed renewable energy capacity, however, is a global target and it is not incumbent on every nation to meet this target individually.

3. PHASE DOWN OF COAL 

Coal had already received a special mention in the Glasgow Conference in 2021, marked out for a phase-down. There was an move to restrict the opening of new coal-powered plants without an in – built carbon capture and storage facility but it was firmly resisted by India, China and South Africa. In conclusion, the COP 28 agreement reiterated the commitment to achieve a phase–down of coal, without any definitive standards being set to achieve this poorly defined objective.

4. METHANE EMISSION CUTS

Besides Carbon Dioxide, Methane is the most widespread of the greenhouse gases, accounting for nearly a quarter of all emissions. It is also more powerful contributor to global warming than carbon dioxide. This measure, too, was watered down to a vague commitment to reduce non–CO2 emissions by 2030 without any strict targets being enforced. Many countries, including India, were opposed to any mandate to cut methane emissions since one of the primary sources of these emissions is the agricultural and livestock sector, which is the lifeblood of many agri–based nations across the globe.

5. LOSS AND DAMAGE FUND

This was hailed as a positive outcome for developing nations that are vulnerable to disasters caused by climate change. A Loss and Damage fund had been formalised in theory last year, but it was this conference that this fund was made operable with funding commitments totalling nearly 800 million US dollars.

6. GLOBAL ADAPTATION

Common climate adaptation goals such as alleviating the impact of climate-induced water scarcity, food shortage and health problems. The framework was easily adopted but it lacks any relevant financial provisions or measures to track the progress of each nation on this front.

The ambiguous language of most of these pledges and commitments enumerated in this historic agreement has yet again, illustrated the crux of the problem when it comes to staving off climate change and its harmful effects. While numerous governments like the USA, India and China have made efforts to boost the renewable energy sector and listed climate change as a major concern in their agendas to differing extents, the lack of a clear and actionable plan to mitigate the effects of climate change was the absent star of this conference. Even the phrase ‘ phasing out fossil fuels’ was deemed too controversial to be included in the agreement, even though it would have virtually meant the same in real-time since the widespread usage of fossil fuels is likely to continue unabated for the foreseeable future.

WHERE WE STAND WITH REGARDS TO THE PLANET WE INHABIT

There is a dilemma confronting governments as they are forced to contend with climate-induced disasters unfolding on their watch while balancing the socio–economic interests of their peoples. No economist worth her salt would argue against the rationale behind India’s resistance to methane emission cuts or the reluctance of OPEC countries to cut down on fossil fuel production – in the face of economic uncertainty, political upheaval and growing competition, every country has to walk a narrow line between its climate commitments and economic interests.

This lack of harmony when it comes to policy and business decisions can be understood even from the few examples given below:

Oil deals dominated the headlines quite often in the past year, with Exxon Mobil’s bid to buy Pioneer Natural Resources for 64.5$ billion and Chevron’s proposed acquisition of Hess for 60$ billion marking the consolidation of the oil industry in the US. Essequibo, an oil-rich region controlled by Guyana is now being claimed by Venezuela as a part of its territory, the latest escalation in a long-standing dispute that became heated after Exxon Mobil discovered large reserves of crude oil in the area. Occidental Petroleum also made significant acquisitions in the past year. Oil demand has surged after the pandemic and is expected to grow in the current year.

The renewable energy sector has also grown in recent years, receiving express support in the form of the IRA – Inflation Reduction Act (Implemented by the Biden administration) and the budget brought forth by the Finance Minister of India contained notable provisions for accelerating the country’s transition to the renewable sources of energy. The IRA was passed in 2022 by the US Congress with the stated goal of reducing carbon emissions by 40% by 2030. It included various incentives in the forms of grants and loans to encourage the development of clean energy sectors (including clean manufacturing, clean housing and clean buildings) with an emphasis on cutting methane emissions, boosting the growth of the electric vehicle sector and making communities climate resilient.

The interim budget presented by India’s finance minister allocated Rupees 35,000 crore for priority investments in the clean energy sector and the budgetary estimates for the central scheme on solar based power grid more than doubled for the coming year. The budget for the National Green Hydrogen Mission was also increased to Rupees 600 crore.

The European Union adopted a set of proposals (Regulation on the governance of the Energy Union Climate Action) with a view to integrating its stated climate policy objectives in its climate, energy, transport and taxation policies.

Turning away from the bright side, we find intense industrial interest expressed in deep sea mining to extract critical minerals and metals from the vast ocean floor at an affordable cost and with advanced technology even as scientists warn of the unpredictability of the aftereffects of such mining and climate activists insist that these activities will inevitably destroy marine ecosystems and lead to the extinction of numerous aquatic species.

Finally, in 2022, China approved the construction of 80 GW of new coal power capacity and encouraged coal mining firms to invest in coal power generation, reneging on its earlier pledge to restrain coal-based power generation projects.

The uneven global response to climate change (as illustrated above) is consistent with humanity’s instincts and preferences but not with the planet it occupies. To understand how far behind we are on the timescale of climate change response, we need to look no further than the COP 28 agreement which was the first decision ever to acknowledge the role of fossil fuels in causing global warming in the very year that climate change broke several records.

WHAT THE SITUATION WARRANTS

Humans have always been adaptable – it is perhaps one of our most striking qualities, particularly in times of extreme hardship and relentless change. Our enterprising activities, expanding commercial interests, new innovations in the field of AI, Medical research, Construction, Aviation, Transport and resourcefulness in the face of adversity have altered the world.

But it’s time for a reckoning.

Clearly, if we are to survive and flourish in the future, we need to work today to ensure the sustainability of our planet and conserve its rich biodiversity. For every year in which we fail to take decisive action, the cost of ignoring the variation in climate patterns caused by human activities rises and the already difficult challenge of avoiding a climate crisis becomes more daunting.

The most basic thing to alter in this situation is the majority perspective. World leaders at Climate Conferences and UN Summits are powerless to enact real change unless they have the confidence of the citizens they represent. No leader can command the will of an entire nation without understanding it first. And this is why climate policies can only be enforced as they ought to be by the citizens of all nations.

Instead of expecting solutions to be developed by obscure parties and corporations, a cooperative effort to understand and mitigate the effects of climate change needs to be organised on the ground level, where everyone contributes to a feasible, practical plan to reduce emissions, stop the exploitation of natural resources at the peril of other species and rejuvenate conservation efforts for sensitive ecosystems.

The key to actually solving this accelerating crisis is a re–evaluation of the costs and benefits of neglecting or addressing it. In this world of government, all stakeholders are equal.

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