Is World War III Going to Happen?

Whenever there is a spike in worldwide tensions, gas prices increase, or politicians unleash their wrath and spew rhetoric, the much-feared question reverberates like a nervous giggle, nearing the revelation of a punchline: Is World War III about to break out? It's important to examine that before your imagination takes you down the rabbit hole.

To begin with, a bit of background. Two devastating wars have been witnessed around the world. World War I (1914-1918) and World War II (1939-1945) taught us painful lessons, claimed millions of lives, and produced a greater number of documentaries that would be impossible to watch all at once. The potential of World War III became a spectre that hung over the imagined future of mankind as a sort of monster under its bed. Yet even with all the petty squabbling, tariffs, hacking, and knee-slapping amounts of diplomacy to fill five seasons of a new Netflix show, we have somehow prevented full-scale global conflict since the end of World War II. This is not fortuitous; to a great extent, it is a result of three aspects: nuclear deterrence, economic interdependence, and international diplomacy. But hold on--that does not necessarily signify that another world war is just on the doorstep, does it? Not necessarily.

“NO” for World War III, Why

Nuclear weapons, although they may be very destructive, that the biggest deterrent to a country joining a second world war is nuclear weapons, which could spell the end of the world. Following the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, countries learned one thing: there will be no victor in the case of a nuclear war; instead, there will be ashes. This concept, which is referred to as Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), fronts world powers in check. Countries can flex their muscles, yell over a wall, or parade tanks, but the nuclear button is akin to ordering pineapple on a pizza- universally unwise. The current world is less of the age of war and more of the safety of proxy war and economic issues -think trade wars, sanctions, and TikTok bans..

Economic Interdependence, Global: Is World War III Going to Happen? Here’s the Straight Answer nation has made countries knotted together in a massive complex business agreement. China depends on American technology, the U.S. imports products from the nations it criticises, and even competitors such as India and Pakistan have trade relations, which are not conducive to war since business is bad. China trades with India. The USA has trade with Russia (even despite the tensions). Even their enemies cannot do without each other to maintain their economies. Stock markets are likely to be the battlefield of modern warfare, rather than trenches. The economies of nations are fragile, and any war would be bad business, and one thinks that politicians care about one thing only (except votes), that is, the economy.

International organisations — Imperfect, bureaucratic, not to mention frustrating. Well, the United Nations is not ideal (they are like a sleepy security guard sometimes), but the fact that there is a global organisation like the United Nations, NATO, G20, and International Court of Justice serves as a de facto soft pressure valve. Diplomacy, peace talks, sanctions, and negotiations tend to take their turn before the notion of getting the war drums of their dust

can even be considered. They cannot prevent all conflicts, but they are very successful when it comes to preventing the big one.

“YES” for World War III, Why

Logic notwithstanding, several experts, historians, and your one wildly paranoid friend are convinced that it is not a zero-risk risk.

Unpredictable leadership is the reason why World War III has not been eliminated. Occasionally, there is a rogue world leader who enjoys a little pandemonium- envisage a rogue world leader who has the nuclear keys and the disposition of a two-year-old refusing ice cream. Fluctuating leadership increases the likelihood of misunderstanding, unintentional aggravation, or even violent behaviour.

Technology, tanks, and trenches need not apply when the weapon is AI. Cyber warfare has already been established. Nations go after the power grid of the other nation, co-opt information, and launch disinformation campaigns against the other nation that can become destabilising to the society itself. In a worst-case scenario, where everything is out of control, cyberattacks might become the trigger nobody expects.

Localised wars are becoming Global. History teaches us that world wars can begin with a relatively minor conflict. An example is World War I, which started because of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which is indeed a very local incident that escalated on a worldwide scale. Modern regional tensions, be they in the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula, or the Middle East, have the danger of attracting major powers unless someone manages to check them.

Others…

At a more domestic level, there is the India-Pakistan rivalry that can trigger World War III anxiety. When the term World War III is mentioned, there are a lot of people who are scared to look at the line between India and Pakistan. Not only are both nuclear-armed neighbours, but they have also shown incredible restraint. Both nations understand that a full-out war would result in reciprocated destruction, not only of them but possibly the whole region. At least both parties, it appears, are more inclined to play it by whacking it on cricket pitches and engaging in a Twitter war instead. The India-Pakistan tryst, although tense, is not in the light of the Third World War as we know it. Certainly not.

So, should you panic? No

Regardless of what social media, conspiracy theorists, or some politicians would make you think, World War III is unlikely. The contemporary world battles in board rooms, tech centres, and financial spreadsheeting. Yes, there are tensions, and there are local conflicts (unfortunately), but the unified memory of previous world wars and the apocalyptic possibilities of nuclear weapons serve well as deterrents. National clashes seldom make annihilation the default, much as the default is always negotiations. And then, frankly, we know with all the bureaucracy in the world now, we would start by spending five years filling out the paperwork just to formally declare war.

Despite the messiness, chaos, and absurdity of the world, the proximity of World War III is unlikely. Although it is easy to catastrophize, the chances of World War III breaking out are minimal, and the wars that we are fighting today take on a different shape. They oppose climate change, poverty, false information, the pandemic, and cybersecurity. The conflicts

might lack tanks and bombs, but they are equally dangerous, even more so, requiring immediate international collaboration.

In short: No, World War III is not lurking around the corner.

Of course, we need to be informed, but not live in fear.

Then yes, just in case the fears continue haunting you, just put aside those hot headline issues of today and have a cup of tea instead.

Other times, the biggest tool that we can use is a cool head.

References

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