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Source: Ali Khoshnevisan on Unsplash.com

“This is the Berlin Wall moment of Iranians”, said Masih Alinejad, an Iranian-American journalist and activist.

On February 28, 2026, the air in Tehran carried conflicting emotions; a divide between those rejoicing and those mourning. The killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Israeli-United States strikes escalated tensions and ultimately created a war-like situation in the Middle East. Khamenei’s death marked the end of a 37-year era of absolute rule.

After the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Iran was transformed into a theocracy, characterised by significant repression. Velayat-e-Faqih, a political doctrine developed by Ayatollah Khamenei, granted him absolute control over state, military and religious affairs. The country has witnessed various protests due to dissatisfaction with the rule. The most notable one was the ‘Women, Life, Freedom’ protests of 2022, which broke out following the death of Mahsa Amini. Mahsa Amini was a 22-year-old woman who was killed by the ‘morality police’ in Iran for allegedly violating the mandatory hijab laws. The ‘Women, Life, Freedom’ demonstrations in Iran demanded an end to the gender-based oppression, advocating for women's rights and freedom of choice. The movement gained traction on social media and transcended borders. The Iranian regime doubled down with the 2024 laws that institute draconian measures for women who do not comply with the dress code. For the "crime" of showing hair or advocating for bodily autonomy, thousands of women faced the "Morality Police," a force that used everything from white vans to sophisticated AI-surveillance to enforce the mandatory hijab. Iran ranked 143 out of 146 countries in the World Economic Forum’s global gender gap report in 2024.

On the other hand, political opposition in the country was subject to extensive repression; activists and opposition parties were under sharp public scrutiny. The demonstrations that unfolded in December of 2025 as a result of collapsing currency were met with deadly suppression. Mounting oppression had long been fermenting anger, and Khamenei’s death marked a watershed moment for the country. With an uncertain interregnum in the country, an interim council has been instated—consisting of President Masoud Pezeshkian; the chief justice of the Supreme Court, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei; and a member of the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Alireza Arafi. Experts warn that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains the most significant ‘wild card’. As the backbone of the economy and internal security, the IRGC may view this transition as an opportunity to implement a military autocracy. History has shown that the fall of a strongman does not automatically yield the rise of a free society; often, it merely clears the stage for a new form of hardline rule.

The vacuum left by Khamenei’s death creates a struggle for Iran’s agency. Within certain Western circles, there is a push for the restoration of the monarchy under Reza Pahlavi.   The concern arises that a restored monarchy would be beholden to the West, prioritising oil flow and regional stability over the more imperative needs of the country. The historical trauma of the 1953 coup (Operation Ajax) renews the belief that any Western-backed transition is merely “regime change for resources”. In this narrative, the U.S. isn’t interested in Iranian feminism or democracy, but in securing the world’s third-largest oil reserves. The greatest challenge for the Iranian people is preventing their revolution from being "stolen" by external powers. Unlike 1953 or 1979, the current movement is leaderless and decentralised. This makes it harder to co-opt but also more vulnerable to a power vacuum that a well-funded, Western-backed "puppet" might fill. The fear is a transition that replaces a "clerical dictator" with a "secular autocrat" who serves foreign energy markets.

The joint US-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, succeeded in ‘decapitating’ the leadership, but the body of the Islamic Republic—its courts, morality police, etc., is not buried yet. Whether the temporary council transitions towards democracy or doubles down on the iron-fisted policies of the last four decades remains ambiguous.

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