Sudan, a country historically plagued by internal conflicts, political instability, and ethnic divisions, is once again embroiled in a brutal civil war. The conflict, which erupted in April 2023, pits the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). More than a year into the fighting, the war has plunged Sudan into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with devastating consequences for civilians and alarming implications for regional stability.

The Roots of the Conflict

To understand the current war, one must delve into Sudan's turbulent political history. After decades of authoritarian rule under President Omar al-Bashir, Sudan experienced a popular uprising in 2019, leading to his ouster. A transitional government was formed, comprising both civilian leaders and military generals. This uneasy partnership was always fraught with tension, as both sides jostled for power during the fragile move toward democracy.

The two key figures in this power struggle are General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the SAF, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, the leader of the RSF. Initially, allies, their relationship deteriorated as disputes emerged over the timeline and structure of integrating the RSF into the national army. The integration was a key part of a democratic transition deal. But both men saw the move as threatening their own political and military power bases.

What began as a power struggle at the top escalated into a full-blown civil war when fighting erupted in Khartoum and spread across the country.

The War’s Impact on Sudan

Humanitarian Catastrophe

Sudan’s civilian population has borne the brunt of the conflict. Over 8 million people have been displaced internally or forced to flee to neighbouring countries. Cities like Khartoum, Nyala, and El Fasher have become battlegrounds, with indiscriminate shelling, airstrikes, and gunfights turning urban neighbourhoods into war zones.

Food insecurity has reached catastrophic levels. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), around 18 million Sudanese are facing acute hunger, with some areas on the brink of famine. The war has severely disrupted agricultural activities and supply chains, and humanitarian aid is often blocked or looted by armed groups.

Hospitals have been destroyed or occupied by fighters, and access to medicine is critically limited. Basic services, including water, electricity, and internet connectivity, have collapsed in many regions.

Ethnic Violence and Fragmentation

In Darfur—a region with a tragic history of ethnic cleansing in the early 2000s—the conflict has reignited deep-rooted tensions. The RSF, which has origins in the Janjaweed militias responsible for past atrocities, has been accused of launching ethnically motivated attacks, especially against non-Arab communities. Towns have been razed, and mass graves have been reported.

What began as a power struggle between two generals has splintered into localised wars involving tribal militias, armed civilian groups, and criminal networks. The central authority is rapidly eroding, and the country is at risk of breaking apart.

Geopolitical Dimensions and Regional Tensions

Sudan’s war is not isolated; it is deeply intertwined with the politics and security dynamics of the broader region. Sudan borders seven countries—Egypt, Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea—each with its own conflicts and interests. The war is spilling across borders and attracting international attention.

Egypt

Egypt has historically supported the Sudanese military, especially General al-Burhan. Cairo views a stable military-led Sudan as essential to its own national security and has offered logistical and diplomatic support to the SAF. Egypt is particularly concerned about the potential rise of Islamist factions or foreign-backed militias gaining influence in Sudan.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

The UAE has been linked to support for the RSF, largely due to its growing influence in the Red Sea region and its interest in controlling gold mines in Darfur and other parts of Sudan. The RSF controls significant gold exports, which may be funding its operations. Though the UAE officially denies involvement, reports suggest logistical aid, arms transfers, and the use of mercenary networks.

Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s relationship with Sudan is complicated. The two countries have unresolved border disputes in the Al-Fashaga region and have also clashed diplomatically over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The conflict in Sudan raises fears in Addis Ababa of refugee inflows and border instability, while also creating opportunities to assert influence.

Chad and South Sudan

Chad, already facing instability, has seen waves of refugees from Sudan, further straining its resources. Meanwhile, South Sudan—still recovering from its own civil war—relies on oil pipelines that pass through Sudan, making the conflict an economic and political threat to Juba.

The cross-border arms flow, refugee movement, and militia involvement are transforming Sudan’s internal war into a regional powder keg.

The Role of International Actors

The African Union (AU) and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)

Regional bodies like the AU and IGAD have tried to broker peace, but their efforts have largely failed due to a lack of enforcement mechanisms and the unwillingness of the warring parties to compromise.

The United Nations

The UN has repeatedly called for ceasefires and negotiated humanitarian access, but its mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) was recently asked to leave by the military government, limiting its influence. The Security Council remains divided, with geopolitical rivalries hindering coordinated action.

Western Powers

The U.S., EU, and UK have imposed sanctions on key individuals and entities involved in the conflict. However, without ground-level enforcement and leverage, these measures have had limited impact. Western nations are primarily focused on humanitarian aid, evacuations, and diplomatic pressure.

Russia and China

Both Russia and China have adopted a more hands-off approach. Russia, seeking to expand its presence in Africa, has shown interest in Sudanese gold and military cooperation. China, a major investor in Sudanese infrastructure, remains primarily concerned with protecting its commercial interests.

The Way Forward: Can Peace Be Achieved?

Sudan is at a crossroads. With each passing month, the prospects for a unified, democratic Sudan diminish. The war has fractured the country, destroyed infrastructure, and created deep ethnic and regional divides.

Achieving peace will require:

• A Comprehensive Ceasefire: Negotiated through a neutral international platform, and enforced with monitoring mechanisms.
• Inclusive Political Dialogue: Beyond the two generals, Sudanese civil society, women’s groups, ethnic minorities, and displaced communities must have a voice.
• Justice and Accountability: Without addressing war crimes and human rights violations, especially in Darfur, lasting peace is impossible. Demilitarisation and Security Sector Reform: Any future government must deal with the proliferation of armed groups and the privatisation of violence.
• International Support and Pressure: Global powers must coordinate to apply consistent pressure, prevent arms inflows, and ensure aid reaches civilians.

The war in Sudan is more than a battle between two rival generals—it is a tragedy of political failure, unchecked militarism, and international complacency. It reflects the legacies of colonialism, authoritarianism, and exclusion. As the world’s attention shifts from crisis to crisis, Sudan risks becoming a forgotten war.

But for the millions of Sudanese civilians caught in the crossfire, this conflict is an everyday nightmare. Their resilience is extraordinary, but it should not be a substitute for international action. Peace is possible, but it requires urgent, united, and sustained effort.

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