The dust has settled on Bihar's Assembly elections, and the verdict is resounding. The NDA didn't just win it demolished expectations, surpassing even Home Minister Amit Shah's bold prediction of 160 seats in the 243-member Assembly. This wasn't merely an electoral victory; it was a masterclass in political strategy, welfare delivery, and understanding the pulse of Bihar's electorate. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan's collapse raises uncomfortable questions about opposition politics in contemporary India.
The Nitish Kumar Phenomenon: Experience Over Youth
At the heart of this landslide lies Nitish Kumar, a political veteran whose relevance many had begun to question. Critics pointed to his health, mocked his reliance on written speeches, and suggested his time had passed. They were spectacularly wrong.
Kumar's enduring appeal rests on something deeper than charisma or oratory and it's built on trust, particularly among women voters who have consistently backed him across caste lines. Since 2005, he has systematically created a welfare architecture that directly touches women's lives which includes bicycle schemes for girls ensuring they can reach schools, uniform programs reducing financial burden on families, and most controversially, alcohol prohibition addressing a genuine concern about domestic violence and household economics.
This election, he doubled down with the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, promising Rs 10,000 to 1.3 crore women through Jeevika self-help groups. These aren't mere welfare handouts; they're investments in social capital that have created a vast network of women stakeholders invested in the government's success.
Remarkably, the 73-year-old Kumar attended 84 rallies nearly matching the much younger Tejashwi Yadav's 85. This wasn't vanity; it was Kumar demonstrating he still had the stamina and commitment Bihar values. In politics, showing up matters.
The Welfare Wars: Who Offered More?
Let's be frank about what swung this election - freebies, or as political scientists prefer, "welfare populism." The NDA promised 125 units of free electricity monthly and Rs 1,000 stipends for unemployed youth for two years. Pensions tripled from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100, affecting 1.12 crore families numbers too large to ignore.
The government also increased honoraria for 95,000 ASHA workers and introduced gender-focused initiatives like pink toilets, pink buses, women's markets, and hostels for girls. These targeted interventions signal both inclusion and security to women voters.
The Mahagathbandhan countered with Rs 2,500 monthly stipends for women, 200 units of free electricity, Rs 25 lakh medical insurance, and land for the landless. On paper, more generous. So why did they lose?
The answer lies in credibility. Nitish Kumar had a two-decade track record of delivery. The opposition was promising the moon without having demonstrated the capacity or will to deliver. In Bihar's political economy, a smaller promise kept beats a larger promise doubted.
Chirag Paswan: The Young Turk's Triumph
One of the election's most fascinating subplots is Chirag Paswan's emergence as a serious political force. His Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) became the fourth-largest party, trailing only the BJP, JD(U), and RJD by downgrading Congress to seventh position.
Paswan's strategy was clever as he fielded candidates with cross-caste appeal, broadening beyond his traditional Dalit base. He also played the emotion card skillfully, invoking his late father Ram Vilas Paswan's legacy, a famous figure in Bihar politics whose memory still resonates.
This performance, following a clean sweep of all five Lok Sabha seats his party contested in 2024, establishes Paswan as a politician to watch. He represents a generational shift in Bihar politics: young, realistic, and willing to work within coalitions while building his own identity.
The Jungle Raj Ghost That Wouldn't Die
Prime Minister Modi's "katta sarkar" (gun-wielding government) attack proved devastatingly effective. His rally cry, "Nahi chahiye katta sarkaar, fir ek baar NDA sarkaar", weaponised Bihar's darkest memories of the 1990s Lalu-Rabri era, when lawlessness became synonymous with RJD rule.
Modi didn't just criticise; he painted a dystopian future: "Should a child from Bihar become a rangdaar (goon) or a doctor?" This framing forced voters to choose between progress and regression, development and chaos.
The RJD's proposal to review the liquor ban arguably a reasonable policy discussion became ammunition for opponents to suggest a return to the bad old days. In politics, perception trumps policy nuance, and the perception of jungle raj returning proved toxic for the opposition.
Where the Opposition Lost the Plot
The Mahagathbandhan's campaign suffered from strategic confusion. Initially focused on alleged NDA misgovernance and lawlessness, they pivoted to the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) issue and "vote chori" allegations. Rahul Gandhi's claims that 25 lakh votes were manipulated were echoing similar allegations across states that might have resonated in Delhi's echo chambers but fell flat in Bihar's villages.
Voters care about issues affecting their daily lives which include electricity, jobs, healthcare, education. Alleging Election Commission complicity, whether valid or not, came across as excuse-making rather than problem-solving.
Congress's catastrophic performance ahead in just six seats compared to 19 in 2020 has exposed the party's continued irrelevance in Bihar. For a national party, this represents not just defeat but humiliation.
Tejashwi's Unfulfilled Promise
Tejashwi Yadav remains in his father's long shadow, unable to craft a distinct political identity. The RJD's collapse from 75 seats in 2020 to being ahead in just 25 seats is a damning indictment. Despite his youth, energy, and 85 rallies, Tejashwi couldn't overcome the twin burdens of jungle raj's memory and his father's controversial legacy.
The lesson is harsh that in democracy, lineage guarantees opportunity, not success. Voters want leaders who solve their problems, not inheritors coasting on family names.
The Local Politics Undercurrent
Beneath the grand narratives, this election reaffirmed an eternal truth that all politics is local. Candidate selection, caste arithmetic, and welfare delivery at the grassroots mattered more than national rhetoric. Smaller parties made unexpected gains by focusing on issues ignored by larger parties obsessed with statewide narratives.
Bihar's verdict is ultimately a victory of governance over opposition, welfare delivery over promises, and experience over youth. The NDA didn't just win an election; they demonstrated how to build and maintain political capital in India's most complex political laboratory.
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