Photo by Theodore Goutas on Unsplash
The question of a nationwide caste census has ignited a fierce political debate in India, a nation uniquely defined by its complex social hierarchy. Unlike the United States or Brazil, which enumerate citizens based on race or ethnicity, or European nations like France and Germany which focus on broader demographic data, India grapples with the complex nuances of caste.
The demand for a caste census, championed by numerous opposition parties and social organizations has recently seen a dramatic shift in the political landscape. States like Bihar, Karnataka, and Telangana have already conducted their own caste surveys with Bihar and Telangana publicly releasing their findings. For years, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led central government resisted these calls by citing administrative difficulties and potential social divisions.
Government's Previous Stance: Opposition to Caste Census
In 2021, Minister of State for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai explicitly stated the government's policy against a caste-wise population enumeration beyond Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs). An affidavit filed in the Supreme Court resonated this sentiment, deeming such an exercise "administratively difficult and cumbersome." Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during the 2024 Lok Sabha election campaign, even criticized the opposition's "jitni abadi utna haq" (rights based on population share) slogan, emphasizing poverty as the primary caste.
However, a surprising reversal occurred when the government recently announced its decision to conduct a caste-based census. This move represents a significant departure from the Nehruvian vision of a casteless society, a vision initially embraced by the Congress party. Now, both the Congress advocating for caste census as a key electoral plank and the BJP along with its ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), find themselves aligned with the "Mandal politicians" of regional parties.
The official justification for this shift is "data-based affirmative action," with Home Minister Amit Shah hailing it as a commitment to social justice. However, the timing and political context suggest deeper motivations. With Bihar elections approaching in October-November, the BJP appears keen to counter Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's influence, who, in alliance with the Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), had been spearheading the caste census movement. Furthermore, the BJP's desire to regain ground in Uttar Pradesh as a crucial electoral battleground likely plays a significant role. The party aims to consolidate its support among the state's substantial Other Backward Classes (OBC) population, who make up more than 50% of the voters.
Official Justification vs. Political Motivations
By embracing the caste census, the BJP seeks to position itself as a champion of social justice, a dramatic shift from its past opposition to the Mandal Commission recommendations which aimed to provide reservations for OBCs. However, this move carries inherent risks. A nationwide caste census has the potential to exacerbate social divisions, as various groups have to approach for maximum representation and resources. The spectre of the 1990 Mandal agitation which triggered widespread social unrest, appears large.
While the BJP possesses political heft and a unifying Hindutva-nationalism narrative, the post-census landscape remains unpredictable. The logistical challenges of conducting the census are significant, but the potential for social and political upheaval is even greater. The BJP's ability to navigate the inevitable contradictions, competitions, and controversies that arise from the census will ultimately determine the success or failure of its strategic chances taken up.
A Nation Puzzled
Eight days after the harrowing terror attack in Pahalgam, a nation braced for decisive action against the perpetrators. Instead, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government unveiled a surprising announcement: a nationwide caste census. This abrupt decision, following a high-level meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA), has left political observers and the public alike grappling with its implications. Why the sudden shift in focus, especially amidst heightened national security concerns?
The Caste Census: A Political Battleground
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has strategically positioned the caste census as a cornerstone of his political agenda, finding common ground with regional powerhouses like the Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Janata Dal. These parties have long advocated for such a census by viewing it as a crucial step towards social justice. Gandhi's amplification of this demand, both domestically and internationally, has effectively aligned Congress's platform with the socialist parties' core principles.
A History of Opposition: The Sangh Parivar's Stance
The Rashtriya Jansangh Parivar, including key figures like Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Adityanath, has historically maintained a staunch opposition to the caste census. Modi himself, when the Nitish Kumar government in Bihar conducted a caste survey in 2023, denounced it as a "sin" that would divide Hindu society. BJP-backed legal challenges against Bihar's survey and its subsequent quota increase for marginalized communities further underscored this opposition. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has also consistently called for a reconsideration of caste-based reservations. During the 2024 Lok Sabha and assembly campaigns, now these leaders heatedly criticized Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, Lalu Prasad Yadav, and Tejashwi Yadav for allegedly spreading "the poison of casteism."
The Pahalgam Attack and Shifting Priorities
The INDIA alliance, led by Congress, united in condemning the Pahalgam terror attack had been urging the Modi government to prioritize action against terrorism and Pakistan's involvement. An unprecedented wave of public outrage swept through Jammu and Kashmir, with citizens standing in solidarity with the victims. Recognizing the gravity of the situation, the opposition even temporarily suspended its demands for a caste census, allowing the government to focus on the pressing security threat.
Political Strategy: Bihar's Electoral Dynamics
Political analysts and opposition leaders suggest that Modi's sudden shift towards a caste census is a calculated move to secure electoral gains in the upcoming Bihar elections. "Instead of visiting the Pahalgam attack site, did PM Modi choose to address the tragedy from election-bound Bihar by attempting to capitalise on the situation," observes Shivanand Tiwary, RJD's national vice president. Sensing that tough talk on terrorism might not resonate with Bihar's electorate, he has made a strategic U-turn on the caste census.
Electoral Impact and Political Disorientation
The unexpected announcement has left both BJP cadres and the opposition in Bihar in chaos. Hindutva supporters, who had been framing the Pahalgam attack in communal terms, are now disoriented. The opposition, too, is struggling to formulate a counter-strategy, as the BJP intensifies its focus on the crucial Bihar elections, particularly given Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's declining influence.
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