Photo by Mufid Majnun on Unsplash
Just when the world thought COVID-19 had settled into the background, a fresh surge has started to raise eyebrows once again. In recent weeks, the state of Maharashtra has reported a noticeable surge in COVID-19 cases, prompting health authorities to increase surveillance and public health communication. From January 2025 until now, the state has confirmed 106 positive cases and two related deaths. Of these, a significant 101 cases are from Mumbai alone.
On Tuesday, the Maharashtra health department reported 19 new infections -15 in Mumbai, three in Kolhapur, and one in Pune. Health officials in Pune clarified that the one positive individual had already recovered. As of the latest update, 52 people in the state are COVID-positive and recuperating at home, while 16 others have been hospitalised.
Dr. Babita Kamalapurkar, Joint Director of Health, Maharashtra, assured that the current cases present only mild symptoms, and there is no immediate cause for alarm. “There is no need to panic. Citizens should focus on hygiene and follow appropriate COVID-19 behaviour. Those with comorbidities need to be extra cautious,” she said.
Authorities are now sending samples for genomic sequencing to BJ Medical College and the National Institute of Virology to identify circulating variants.
Why Are COVID-19 Cases Rising Again?
The sudden surge in COVID-19 infections in Maharashtra and other regions is not isolated. Globally, countries like Singapore and Hong Kong are also witnessing periodic waves of the virus. Health experts suggest several factors are contributing to this resurgence.
1. Waning Population Immunity
According to Singapore’s Ministry of Health, one of the key reasons behind the rise in COVID-19 cases is the waning immunity among the general population. After vaccination drives and previous waves, immunity levels are naturally declining over time, making people more susceptible to infection again.
Dr. Raman Gangakhedkar, one of India’s leading epidemiologists, echoed this observation, stating that unless there is a spike in hospitalisations or mortality, the public should not panic. "There is nothing new or alarming. We must accept that COVID-19 has become endemic," he told Mint.
2. Shifting Dominance of New Variants
A change in dominant viral strains is another major reason behind the surge. In Hong Kong, the XDV strain has been circulating since late March, replacing previously dominant variants like KP.2 and KP.3. Before these, JN.1 was the leading variant early in 2024.
Singapore, meanwhile, is currently witnessing a rise in infections driven by LF.7 and NB.1.8, both sub-lineages of the JN.1 variant. Together, they account for more than two-thirds of locally sequenced cases. Notably, JN.1 is also the strain used in the formulation of current COVID-19 vaccines, but its sub-lineages may partially escape existing immunity.
The variants seen in India are still being analyzed. Genome sequencing results from Maharashtra are awaited, which could offer clarity on whether similar or new strains are circulating in the state.
COVID-19 Has Entered an ‘Endemic Periodic Pattern’
Global health authorities are beginning to accept that COVID-19 has moved into a cyclical endemic phase. According to Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection (CHP), the city has been experiencing "active periods" of COVID-19 every six to nine months.
This cyclical pattern means that periodic resurgences are expected, particularly when immunity wanes or new variants emerge. Singapore's health ministry supports this view, noting that such COVID-19 waves will likely occur year-round, much like seasonal flu.
How Severe Are the Current Infections?
Reassuringly, most infections in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Maharashtra are reported to be mild. Health officials across regions have stressed that no variant currently in circulation has shown increased severity compared to older strains.
Hong Kong's CHP, for instance, has clearly stated that there is no evidence the XDV variant causes more serious illness. Similarly, Singapore’s health ministry emphasized that LF.7 and NB.1.8 do not appear to be more transmissible or deadly than previous variants.
In Maharashtra, only 16 of 52 active cases have required hospitalisation, and these have reportedly mild to moderate symptoms. The rest are recovering at home without complications.
Who Should Be Concerned?
Although the general population is not at significant risk, vulnerable groups must remain cautious. These include:
- Elderly individuals.
- People with comorbidities like diabetes, heart disease, or compromised immunity.
- Pregnant women.
- Individuals not vaccinated or with overdue booster shots.
Dr. Gangakhedkar advises such individuals to maintain COVID-appropriate behaviour, including wearing masks in crowded places, practicing regular hand hygiene, and avoiding unnecessary travel during peak infection periods.
Global Response: A Push for Pandemic Preparedness
Amid these new waves, global health leaders are not sitting idle. In a landmark move, the World Health Assembly on May 20, 2025, adopted a historic Pandemic Agreement aimed at making the world better prepared for future health crises.
This agreement came after three years of intense negotiation, triggered by gaps and inequities exposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. It focuses on strengthening global collaboration, improving equitable access to medical supplies and vaccines, and enhancing early warning systems.
A major component still under discussion is the Pathogen Access and Benefit-Sharing System (PABS), a framework to ensure fair distribution of benefits from the sharing of pathogens and related knowledge.
The Road Ahead: Vigilance Without Panic
While the recent rise in COVID-19 cases in Maharashtra may raise eyebrows, it reflects a broader global trend. Experts widely agree that we’re now in a stage where living with COVID-19 is the new normal. This means society must remain alert but not alarmed.
What’s essential is ongoing genomic surveillance, quick detection of new variants, maintaining up-to-date vaccinations, and public adherence to basic preventive practices.
As Dr. Kamalapurkar noted, “This is a phase of adaptation. We are better equipped now than in 2020. With responsible public behaviour and health monitoring, this surge can be managed smoothly.”
What Can You Do?
Here are some simple steps individuals can take to stay protected during this periodic COVID-19 wave:
- Wear a mask in crowded or poorly ventilated areas.
- Wash your hands regularly with soap or use sanitizer.
- Monitor for symptoms such as fever, sore throat, and fatigue.
- Seek medical attention early if you are in a vulnerable category and feel unwell.
- Get vaccinated, including boosters, especially if you fall into a high-risk group.
Remember, COVID-19 may not disappear entirely, but with awareness, responsibility, and science on our side, its impact can be minimized.
. . .
References: