Uttar Pradesh which will go for polls in February and March ranks the second-lowest on the Human development index (35) among all the Indian States/UTs. The HDI measures State’s performance along with a three dimensions index namely,
- Living healthy life
- Being Educated
- Standard of living.
The state also ranks relatively low in several key health indicators such as infant mortality (35) and maternal mortality (18), while it features somewhere in the middle of the list on poverty rate (17), its per capita GDP is among the lowest (31). There is also room for improvement on the education front (27). The HDI index it is evident that Uttar Pradesh is lagging behind with other states in HDI score and the contesting candidates and political parties contesting in the elections should bring back the glory of Uttar Pradesh in terms of GDP, Employment, Farmers and workers issues, Education, and Health Sector to a significant improvement.
The contesting parties are mainly BJP, SP, BSP, AAP. RLD (Rashtriya Lok Dal) and the Congress parties. The AAP party will be contesting first time for all 403 seats and it may be very difficult for the new party to give a tough fight to the contestants in Uttar Pradesh they can more likely to make the difference by splitting the votes of the BJP and SP, To succeed it may be very difficult and it may be opening an account in UP politics this time.
FREEBIES:
There is no exception to the BJP all the political parties want to target women voters to enable them to get in power as the percentage of women voters being more than 46%. Recently Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to the women self-help groups convened by the present Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh to enable them to get their concentration and welfare programme of the present BJP government.Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav promised freebies like free medical treatment to the people tripling the old age pension. AAP party announced 300 units of free electricity, Free electricity to farmers, Scooty for college-going girls, 10 lakhs jobs every year, twenty-five percent of the budget on education, and if voted to power in UP. Congress, on the other hand, is focusing on women's power. The party promised forty percent reservation for women in the Assembly tickets, smartphones for intermediate pass-outs, Scooty to college-going girls, and an increase in pension for widows and elderly women.
The RLD promised for one crore jobs and promised to enhance the PM-Kisan Sanman Nidhi if voted to power from Rs 6000 to Rs 12,000 and Rs 15,000 to small farmers. Many Prominent leaders of the BJP have shifted their loyalties from BJP to Samajvad Party and this time it looks the competition is more or less between SP and BJP parties. As we know last time the votes share for congress was only 6.25% and many of the congress prominent leaders joined hands with BJP and SP. Congress may not be in giving tough fights to the both BJP and SP parties. Mrs. Priyanka Gandhi Could not make any significant impact on the voters in UP. BSP leader Mrs. Mayawathi is also not aggressive this time ad we need to wait and watch the performance of BSP. Mrs. Mayawathi has given 90 seats to minority Muslim candidates in 2017 and wishes to do the same this time as well, wanted to keep the check the minorities votes to SP candidates and wanted to split the votes and wanted to damage the prospects of the Samjvad Party.
Many Dalit and Muslim minorities voters this time may be in favor of SP. More likely the SP Party may win a comfortable margin when compared to the BJP. Mr. Aklesh Yadav is working hard to unite all the OBC into one platform and wanted to represent and give assurance that only the Samajvad party can justify the voters and the people of UP.
The BJP has given majority seats to the Dalits even in the general category also preferring Daliths and priority has been given to the Smt Mayawathi community people only. This time BJP has organized meetings in 75 districts well in advance before the schedule of the date of the election and addressed the Dalits and weaker sections people to enable them to attract their votes to the BJP candidates. The SP party has improved its position by attracting many prominent leaders from the BJP. Many prominent leaders from Congress left the party after Smt. Priyanka Gandhi assuming as a party in charge of UP the most prominent members who left the party are Mr. Jothiraditya earlier worked as Congress in-charge of UP, Mr. Jithin Prasad, who has worked as a cabinet minister from Congress, Mr. RPN Singh, who was also as an Ex Cabinet Minister left the party. It looks the majority of prominent leaders left the Congress and there is a void of leadership in UP. As the BJP and SP are becoming prominent BSP has also a very good hold in the UP.
In 2017 Congress contested with the alliance of SP and could get hardly 6.25% votes and could manage to get only 7 seats. It will be very difficult for Congress to retain even 7 seats in the next elections and it is being a major issue as the congress is unable to address the issue properly and could not retain the senior leaders of the congress and most of them joined either with the Congress or BJP.
During the 1980-88 Period Congress has replaced Six Cms in 8 years period. Only Three Cms out 47 Cms so far from Uttar Pradesh since 1952 completed their full terms from 1952 onwards namely Mayawati (BSP), Aklish Yadav(SP), and the present CM of BJP Mr. Yogi Adityanath. The below table explains the performance of major political parties of UP for the last 9 terms from 1985 to the 2017 assembly elections.
In the 2017 elections BJP has gained 272 seats, SP lost 188 seats, Congress 26, and BSP 77 seats and this shows how the BJP has emerged as the single largest party without any party support it could rule efficiently for a 5-year term.
Many prominent political analysts say that Mr. Yogi Adityanath will manage to win the elections in a tough fight with the present chief of Mr. Akilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party. It is too early to predict the results of the election certainly it is not a cakewalk for the BJP and SP will certainly consolidate its position as the many MLA’s and the Minster changed their loyalties from BJP to Samajwadi Party and It will be a tough fight between SP and BJP. Let’s have patience till March 10, 2022 results announcement day.